BTTS in MLS, Brasileirão, Liga MX and Three More Leagues Abroad
Six leagues, 18,936 matches, one market. MLS is the most reliable home of BTTS Yes, while Argentina and Brazil lean the other way, mostly because away sides go missing.
- 58.7%BTTS Yes in MLS, the highest
- 45.0%BTTS Yes in the Argentine Primera, the lowest
- 1.70fair BTTS Yes odds in MLS
European leagues get most of the attention in my market, but some of the most useful both-teams-to-score patterns sit further afield. I took MLS, the Brasileirão, the Argentine Primera, Liga MX, the J1 League and the Chinese Super League from 2016 to 2024 and asked a plain question: how often do both sides actually find the net?
Across 18,936 matches, both teams scored in 51.9%, which is barely better than a coin toss. That pooled figure hides a wide spread, though, from 58.7% in MLS down to 45.0% in Argentina. The league you are betting in matters more than the market's reputation, and it is the first filter I apply before anything goes on my BTTS predictions today page.
01MLS leads and Argentina trails on both teams scoring
The bars split neatly into two camps. MLS tops the list at 58.7% of 3,862 matches, followed by the Chinese Super League at 56.1% and Liga MX at 54.6%. The J1 League sits almost exactly on the line at 51.0%, and the two South American giants fall below it, the Brasileirão at 47.9% and the Argentine Primera at 45.0%.
That gap of +13.7 points between top and bottom is the headline. It means the same bet carries a different default in each league: in MLS you start from Yes, in Argentina you start from No.
View the data: btts rate outside europe
| Both teams scored, 2016–2024 | |
|---|---|
| MLS | 58.7% |
| Chinese Super League | 56.1% |
| Liga MX | 54.6% |
| J1 League | 51.0% |
| Brasileirão | 47.9% |
| Argentine Primera | 45.0% |
What I take from this is that MLS games stay open. Squads built around attacking imports and long travel schedules tend to leave defences stretched, while the Argentine league has a reputation for tight, cagey games that the numbers back up.
02Away teams drawing blanks drive the South American No
This chart breaks each league into four outcomes, and the story in the lower half is clear. Neither side scored in 11.7% of Argentine Primera matches, roughly twice as often as the 6.6% in MLS. The bigger driver, though, is the away side: visitors failed to score in 39.0% of Argentine matches and 37.3% of Brasileirão matches.
Compare that with MLS, where home sides drew a blank in only 17.3% of games. When the home team almost always scores, BTTS really comes down to whether the visitors can answer, and in MLS they usually do.
View the data: who scored, league by league
| Both scored | Only home scored | Only away scored | Neither scored | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 58.6% | 24.0% | 10.8% | 6.6% |
| Chinese Super League | 56.1% | 22.1% | 15.3% | 6.5% |
| Liga MX | 54.6% | 23.8% | 14.3% | 7.3% |
| J1 League | 51.0% | 22.5% | 18.8% | 7.7% |
| Brasileirão | 47.9% | 28.9% | 14.8% | 8.4% |
| Argentine Primera | 44.9% | 27.3% | 16.1% | 11.7% |
The J1 League stands out in a quieter way. Its away-only slice is the largest of the six, so Japanese visitors are more competitive than most, which is why that league hovers around even rather than tilting hard either way.
03Year-by-year swings in MLS, Brasileirão and Liga MX
A league average is only useful if it holds steady. MLS has been the most dependable, ranging from 53.7% to 63.3% by year and never dipping close to the Brasileirão's range. Brazil moved between 42.6% and 54.5%, while Liga MX was the most restless of the three, swinging from 47.1% to 60.8%.
The main caveat belongs here. The 2024 records are incomplete and 2020 was disrupted by the pandemic, which matters because MLS's highest year and the Brasileirão's highest year both fall in those seasons. League formats with split seasons and playoffs also differ, so these are pooled match rates, and none of this is a forecast.
Years are calendar years of the match date; 2024 is incomplete in the records.
View the data: mls, brasileirão and liga mx by year
| MLS | Brasileirão | Liga MX | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 58.0% | 45.6% | 60.8% |
| 2017 | 53.7% | 48.7% | 50.9% |
| 2018 | 61.0% | 42.6% | 54.8% |
| 2019 | 59.4% | 46.8% | 52.8% |
| 2020 | 57.4% | 54.5% | 56.7% |
| 2021 | 58.9% | 45.5% | 47.1% |
| 2022 | 59.5% | 49.7% | 56.7% |
| 2023 | 56.0% | 48.2% | 56.3% |
| 2024 | 63.3% | 53.1% | 55.7% |
My reading is that MLS's lean towards Yes is structural, while Liga MX needs checking season by season before I trust its average.
04Break-even BTTS prices from 1.70 in MLS to 2.22
The table turns each frequency into a fair price, the break-even decimal odds with no margin added. BTTS Yes is worth 1.70 in MLS, 1.78 in the Chinese Super League and 1.83 in Liga MX. The J1 League is nearly balanced at 1.96 for Yes against 2.04 for No.
At the other end, the value flips. BTTS No has a fair price of 1.92 in the Brasileirão and 1.82 in the Argentine Primera. If a bookmaker offers less than these numbers, the historical base rate alone is not enough to justify the bet.
| League | Matches | BTTS Yes | Fair Yes | Fair No | Home blank | Away blank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 3,862 | 58.7% | 1.70 | 2.42 | 17.3% | 30.6% |
| Chinese Super League | 2,064 | 56.1% | 1.78 | 2.28 | 21.8% | 28.6% |
| Liga MX | 2,911 | 54.6% | 1.83 | 2.20 | 21.6% | 31.1% |
| J1 League | 2,862 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 2.04 | 26.5% | 30.2% |
| Brasileirão | 3,329 | 47.9% | 2.09 | 1.92 | 23.2% | 37.3% |
| Argentine Primera | 3,908 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 1.82 | 27.8% | 39.0% |
I use these prices as a floor, not a target. A quoted price above fair only interests me when the team news and game state also point the same way.
BTTS checklist
- Start from the league. Set your default before looking at the teams: MLS leans Yes at 58.7%, while the Argentine Primera leans No at 45.0%. Make the specific match argue you out of that starting point.
- Check the visitors' attack. Away blanks of 39.0% in Argentina and 37.3% in Brazil drive most BTTS No outcomes there. Ask whether this away side can genuinely create chances on the road.
- Compare against fair odds. Hold any quoted price up against the break-even figures, such as 1.70 for Yes in MLS or 1.82 for No in Argentina. Anything shorter needs a strong match-specific reason.
Quick answers
Which league outside Europe has the most BTTS?
Among these six, MLS had the highest rate, with both teams scoring in 58.7% of 3,862 matches. The Chinese Super League was next at 56.1%.
Is BTTS No a good bet in Argentina?
Historically it has been the more common outcome, since both teams scored in only 45.0% of Argentine Primera matches. The fair price for BTTS No works out at 1.82, so you need better than that to have an edge on the base rate alone.
How often do both teams score in the Brasileirão?
Both teams scored in 47.9% of 3,329 Brasileirão matches, with yearly rates ranging from 42.6% to 54.5%. Away sides failed to score in 37.3% of games.
I'm Thandiwe Nkosi, based in Cape Town, and I write the both-teams-to-score tips at soccerbet.tips — reading defensive frailty and real attacking intent rather than chasing the obvious high-scoring names.
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