How Accurate Are Football Odds? 1X2 Prices Tested in 38 Leagues
We checked every home, draw and away price against what actually happened. The market is close overall, but it overprices longshots and slightly underrates strong favourites.
- 342,948priced outcomes checked
- 5.6% vs 7.4%longshots under 10%: happened vs priced
- 38leagues tested
Every writer on this desk eventually tells me the market has got a match wrong. Fair enough, but before I let that sentence through, I want to know how often the market gets things right. So we took 114,316 matches across 38 leagues, stripped the margin out of a major bookmaker's pre-match 1X2 prices, and asked a plain question: when the price says a given chance, how often does it happen?
The headline answer is humbling for anyone who likes to argue with the odds. Across 342,948 priced outcomes, the average gap between priced and actual frequency was 0.8 points. Before you back a contrary view in our 1X2 football predictions, that is the figure you have to beat. The gap is not zero, though, and where it opens up is the useful part.
01Favourites win slightly more often than their prices suggest
Each row groups outcomes by their margin-removed probability, then sets the priced figure beside what happened. Through the middle of the chart the two dots almost touch. Outcomes priced at 20–29% happened 25.5% of the time against 26.1% priced, which is about as close as real-world pricing gets.
The ends are where the shape tells a story. Outcomes priced under 10% happened only 5.6% of the time against 7.4% priced, a clear longshot shortfall. At the other extreme, outcomes priced at 80% or more came in 88.0% of the time against 83.7% priced, and the 60–69% band shows the same lean, at 67% against 64.4%.
View the data: priced vs happened, every 1x2 outcome
| Priced (margin removed) | Happened | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| <10% (5,918 selections) | 7.4% | 5.6% | ±0.6 |
| 10–19% (35,942 selections) | 16.0% | 14.7% | ±0.4 |
| 20–29% (139,555 selections) | 26.1% | 25.5% | ±0.2 |
| 30–39% (72,359 selections) | 34.1% | 34.3% | ±0.3 |
| 40–49% (44,360 selections) | 44.6% | 45.2% | ±0.5 |
| 50–59% (25,355 selections) | 54.6% | 56.2% | ±0.6 |
| 60–69% (12,378 selections) | 64.4% | 67.0% | ±0.8 |
| 70–79% (5,313 selections) | 74.3% | 77.9% | ±1.1 |
| 80%+ (1,768 selections) | 83.7% | 88.0% | ±1.5 |
My reading is that the favourite-longshot bias is alive, but modest. Every band landed within 4.2 points of its price, so this is a tilt rather than a hole. If a writer pitches a big outsider because the odds look generous, the data says the generosity is usually an illusion.
02Home sides are underrated most in the Americas and Asia
This chart shows actual win rate minus priced win rate, split by home and away, for groups of leagues. In the top five leagues the market is almost perfect: home sides missed their price by −0.1 points and away sides by −0.2 points. That is the most heavily traded football in the world, and it shows.
Move away from that core and a pattern appears. In European lower divisions the home gap was +0.4 points and the away gap −0.4 points. In the Americas it widened to +1.1 for home sides and −1.3 for away sides, and Asia showed home teams beating their price by 0.9 points.
View the data: are home and away sides priced fairly?
| Home side | Away side | |
|---|---|---|
| Top five leagues | −0.1 pts | −0.2 pts |
| Other European top flights | +0.5 pts | −0.6 pts |
| European lower divisions | +0.4 pts | −0.4 pts |
| Americas | +1.1 pts | −1.3 pts |
| Asia | +0.9 pts | 0 pts |
| Rest of Europe | +0.5 pts | −0.2 pts |
I would not build a staking plan on a point or so, but the direction is consistent: outside the elite leagues, home advantage looks slightly underpriced and travelling sides slightly flattered. Treat it as a reason to scrutinise away favourites, not as a system.
03League Two is priced most tightly, Veikkausliiga least of all
The table lists the 8 best and 8 worst leagues by average gap. League Two tops it at 0.4 points across 5,399 matches, with the Championship close behind at 0.7. The Premier League, for comparison, sits at 0.9 points, so prestige does not buy precision.
At the bottom, Veikkausliiga had the widest gap at 2.0 points, with Serie A surprisingly far down at 1.6. The Chinese Super League stands out on home wins: 46.0% happened against 43.7% priced.
| League | Matches | Avg gap (pts) | Home won | Home priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | 5,399 | 0.4 | 42.4% | 41.8% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 3,060 | 0.6 | 43.3% | 42.6% |
| National League | 4,912 | 0.6 | 42.4% | 42.7% |
| Ekstraklasa | 2,567 | 0.6 | 44.2% | 42.6% |
| Eliteserien | 2,124 | 0.6 | 46.5% | 46.1% |
| Championship | 5,517 | 0.7 | 43.4% | 42.6% |
| Swiss Super League | 1,642 | 0.7 | 42.9% | 43.7% |
| Scottish League Two | 1,675 | 0.8 | 42.1% | 42.1% |
| Serie A | 3,799 | 1.6 | 41.9% | 43.3% |
| Süper Lig | 3,334 | 1.7 | 45.2% | 44.1% |
| Scottish Championship | 1,690 | 1.7 | 40.2% | 41.7% |
| Chinese Super League | 2,058 | 1.7 | 46.0% | 43.7% |
| Primeira Liga | 3,060 | 1.8 | 44.2% | 43.2% |
| Super League Greece | 1,809 | 1.8 | 44.0% | 44.7% |
| Romanian Liga I | 2,560 | 1.9 | 42.7% | 41.7% |
| Veikkausliiga | 1,560 | 2.0 | 42.5% | 42.4% |
One caution I give every writer: a small average gap does not mean each match is priced correctly, only that the errors cancel out across thousands of games. Smaller leagues such as Veikkausliiga, with 1,560 matches, also carry more sampling noise, so part of a wide gap there is simply chance.
Editor's Desk checklist
- Discount the big outsider. Outcomes priced under 10% happened 5.6% of the time against 7.4% priced. Demand a reason far beyond 'the odds look big' before backing one.
- Respect strong favourites. Outcomes priced at 80% or more landed 88.0% of the time against 83.7% priced. Opposing a heavy favourite needs specific evidence, not a hunch.
- Check the league's tightness. League Two averaged a 0.4-point gap, Veikkausliiga 2.0. A wide gap is a prompt to look harder at the prices, not proof of an edge.
Quick answers
How accurate are football 1X2 odds?
Very accurate on average. Across 342,948 priced outcomes in 38 leagues, the margin-removed price differed from actual frequency by 0.8 points.
Do bookmakers overprice longshots in football?
In this study, yes. Outcomes priced under 10% happened 5.6% of the time against 7.4% priced, while those priced at 80% or more happened 88.0% of the time against 83.7%.
Are Premier League odds more accurate than lower leagues?
Not in this data. The Premier League averaged a 0.9-point gap, while League Two was the most accurate at 0.4 points and the Championship recorded 0.7.
I'm Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief at soccerbet.tips, working from Moscow — nothing reaches you on this site until it has passed the standard I hold the whole desk to.
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