Away Favourites vs Home Favourites: Which Win More at the Same Odds?
Across 75,060 matches, away favourites beat their price by slightly more than home favourites did. The difference was widest at longer odds and varied sharply by league.
- 51.3%home favourites won, 50.5% priced
- 5 of 7price bands where away favourites beat price by more
- −3.3%return backing every away favourite
When two teams carry the same favourite's price, one at home and one on the road, the market is claiming they are equally likely to win. My job is to test claims like that. This question shapes how I build my best win-draw-win picks each week, because a bias tied to venue is the kind of structural mispricing a bettor can actually use.
The headline answer is modest but consistent. Across 22 European divisions, away favourites won 48.5% against 47.2% priced, while home favourites won 51.3% against 50.5% priced. Both outperformed their margin-free price, but away favourites beat their price by more in 5 of 7 price bands, and backing every away favourite lost less than backing every home favourite.
01Raw win rates for home and away favourites by band
This chart sets each home favourite against an away favourite at the same price band. At the very short end, home sides held up slightly better: under 1.30, home favourites won 83.2% and away favourites 80.7%. The away sample there is small, though, with only 657 matches and a 95% range of ±3.0, so I would not read much into it.
Move out along the price curve and the picture flips. From 1.50 upwards, away favourites match or edge home favourites in every band. The clearest split comes at 2.50 or longer, where home favourites won 34.8% and away favourites 37.6%.
View the data: home favourites vs away favourites
| Home favourite | Away favourite | |
|---|---|---|
| <1.30 (3,025 home / 657 away) | 83.2% | 80.7% |
| 1.30–1.49 (4,397 home / 1,546 away) | 71.0% | 70.6% |
| 1.50–1.69 (6,813 home / 2,113 away) | 60.5% | 61.7% |
| 1.70–1.89 (8,119 home / 2,686 away) | 54.0% | 54.5% |
| 1.90–2.09 (8,975 home / 3,326 away) | 47.4% | 48.1% |
| 2.10–2.49 (16,249 home / 8,558 away) | 41.9% | 42.0% |
| 2.50+ (4,817 home / 3,779 away) | 34.8% | 37.6% |
Raw win rates only tell half the story, because the price inside each band is not identical. The next chart measures each group against what it was actually priced to do.
02How far each favourite type beat its own price
Here I take each favourite's actual win rate and subtract the margin-free probability implied by its odds. A bar to the right means the market underrated that group. Both home and away favourites sit mostly on the positive side, which fits the familiar pattern of favourites being slightly underpriced.
The interesting part is the comparison. At the short end, home favourites hold a narrow lead. From 1.50 onwards, away favourites outperform their price by more in every band. In the longest band, home favourites fell below their price while away favourites still came in ahead of theirs.
View the data: won minus priced
| Home favourite | Away favourite | |
|---|---|---|
| <1.30 | +3.7 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 1.30–1.49 | +3.4 pts | +3 pts |
| 1.50–1.69 | +1.4 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 1.70–1.89 | +1.3 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 1.90–2.09 | 0 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2.10–2.49 | +0.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2.50+ | −1.9 pts | +0.9 pts |
The returns follow the same direction. At a major bookmaker, backing every home favourite returned −4.7% and every away favourite −3.3%. At the best price available across the market, those figures became −0.9% and +0.7%. To me that says the bias is real enough to show up, but small enough that only good prices turn it into something usable.
03Where the extra losses for away favourites come from
This breakdown matters to me because I treat the draw as a live result, not a leftover. Home favourites drew 26.3% of the time and away favourites 25.9%, which is nearly identical. The lower raw win rate for away favourites comes almost entirely from outright defeats, not from extra draws.
For a bettor, that changes how you protect a position. If the draw rate barely moves with venue, the stand-off is priced on a similar footing in both cases. The real risk with an away favourite is losing outright, and that is where draw-no-bet or double chance cover earns its keep.
View the data: how home and away favourites finish
| Favourite won | Draw | Favourite lost | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home favourite | 51.3% | 26.3% | 22.4% |
| Away favourite | 48.5% | 25.9% | 25.6% |
04Serie A and Scottish football pull in opposite directions
League by league the pattern breaks apart. Serie A showed the biggest away-favourite edge, with away favourites +5.3 points against price and home favourites +0.4, and a flat-stake return of +4.7% on the away side. Primeira Liga also leaned towards travelling favourites, with a gap of +4.7 points.
The Scottish Premiership ran the other way: home favourites +2.4 points against price and away favourites −1.0. The Scottish Championship was harsh on both, with away favourites returning −14.5%. Segunda División is worth a look too, with the away side favourite in only 17.6% of matches.
| League | Away favs | Away fav share | Home: gap | Away: gap | Home: return | Away: return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 1,425 | 37.6% | +0.4 | +5.3 | −4.7% | +4.7% |
| National League | 1,489 | 30.5% | −0.5 | +2.4 | −9.0% | −3.0% |
| Belgian Pro League | 973 | 34.9% | −0.2 | +2.6 | −7.7% | −0.5% |
| Primeira Liga | 915 | 30.0% | +2.6 | +4.7 | −2.3% | +2.2% |
| Ligue 1 | 1,064 | 30.8% | +0.7 | +2.1 | −3.9% | −0.4% |
| Ligue 2 | 951 | 26.9% | +0.8 | +1.8 | −5.8% | −2.7% |
| Süper Lig | 969 | 29.2% | +2.3 | +3.1 | −2.2% | −1.4% |
| Scottish League Two | 546 | 32.8% | +0.4 | +1.2 | −7.6% | −5.6% |
| Eredivisie | 1,062 | 35.7% | +0.7 | −0.2 | −4.7% | −6.3% |
| La Liga | 1,161 | 30.7% | +2.4 | +1.2 | −0.5% | −2.0% |
| Scottish Championship | 577 | 34.4% | −1.9 | −3.4 | −11.2% | −14.5% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 807 | 26.5% | +0.6 | −1.5 | −4.6% | −8.4% |
| Segunda División | 807 | 17.6% | +1.7 | −0.6 | −3.4% | −8.0% |
| Scottish Premiership | 806 | 36.7% | +2.4 | −1.0 | −2.5% | −8.7% |
Top 8 and bottom 6 of 22 European divisions shown.
My main caveat sits here. Each league rests on a few hundred to around fifteen hundred away favourites, and gaps of several points can appear from chance alone. I treat these rows as hypotheses to watch, not rules to bet blindly, and past results promise nothing about future seasons.
1X2 checklist
- Compare against margin-free price. Judge any favourite by its win rate against the margin-free probability, not the raw figure. Away favourites won less often than home favourites overall, yet beat their price by more in 5 of 7 bands.
- Shop for the best price. Backing every away favourite returned −3.3% at a major bookmaker but +0.7% at the best price. The edge is thin enough that price shopping decides whether it exists at all.
- Weight league evidence cautiously. Serie A's +5.3 point away edge looks striking, but league samples are small and noisy. Use league patterns as a tilt to your own estimate, not a replacement for match analysis.
Quick answers
Do away favourites win less often than home favourites?
In raw terms, yes. Away favourites won 48.5% against 51.3% for home favourites. Once price is accounted for, however, away favourites beat their implied probability by more, winning 48.5% against 47.2% priced.
Is it profitable to back every away favourite?
Not reliably. At a major bookmaker, backing every away favourite returned −3.3%. At the best price across the market it returned +0.7%, which is small enough to be chance at these sample sizes.
Which league favours away favourites most?
In this study Serie A showed the biggest away-favourite edge, at +5.3 points against price, with a +4.7% flat-stake return. League samples are small, so that figure can move several points from chance alone.
I'm Anneke Brandt, based in Aspen, and I write the win-draw-win tips at soccerbet.tips — treating the match-result market as price against probability, never as a reason to back the bigger badge.
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