Favourite Win & BTTS by Odds: Which Price Band Delivers Most?
Shorter favourites land the BTTS & Win combination far more often. The conceding rate barely moves, though, and the fair price always sits well above the 1X2 price.
Suchada PhongBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- 16.1%fav win & BTTS, favourite 2.50 or longer (lowest band)
- 42.0%of sub-1.30 favourite wins had BTTS
- 4.48fair odds, favourite win & BTTS overall
Both Teams To Score & Win asks a favourite to do two things at once: win the match and concede along the way. I wanted to know at which 1X2 price that awkward combination lands most often, and what a fair price for it looks like. The sample covers 22 European divisions from 2016/17โ2025/26 and 75,485 matches.
The headline answer is clear. Favourites under 1.30 won with both teams scoring in 34.8% of matches. Favourites at 2.50 or longer managed only 16.1%, and the overall fair price across the sample was 4.48. These are the reference figures I keep beside my today's BTTS & win picks page, because they tell me what the combination is actually worth before any argument about a specific match begins.
01Shorter favourites deliver the BTTS and win combination most often
This chart ranks each price band by how often the favourite won with both teams scoring. The slope runs one way. The rate steps down from 34.8% under 1.30 to 30.8% at 1.30โ1.49 and 26.8% at 1.50โ1.69, then keeps falling to 16.1% at 2.50 or longer.
The gap between the best and worst band is 18.7 points, so the shortest favourites hit the combination roughly twice as often as the longest. Across all 75,060 qualifying matches the overall rate was 22.3%.
View the data: which price produces the most btts & win?
| Favourite won and both teams scored | |
|---|---|
| <1.30 | 34.8% |
| 1.30โ1.49 | 30.8% |
| 1.50โ1.69 | 26.8% |
| 1.70โ1.99 | 22.9% |
| 2.00โ2.49 | 19.4% |
| 2.50+ | 16.1% |
My takeaway is that win probability drives this market. The combination follows the favourite's strength far more closely than any idea of a 'leaky' team.
02Why the combo rate halves the favourite's win rate
The dumbbell sets each band's plain win rate against its BTTS & Win rate. Sub-1.30 favourites won 82.7% of their matches but won with both teams scoring in only 34.8%. At 2.50 or longer the pair reads 36.0% and 16.1%.
In every band the two dots sit a long way apart, and the gap shrinks as the price drifts out. That is the cost of the second leg. Asking a favourite to concede throws away more than half of its wins.
View the data: favourite win vs favourite win & btts
| Favourite won | Won & BTTS | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| <1.30 (3,682 matches) | 82.7% | 34.8% | ยฑ1.5 |
| 1.30โ1.49 (5,943 matches) | 70.9% | 30.8% | ยฑ1.2 |
| 1.50โ1.69 (8,926 matches) | 60.8% | 26.8% | ยฑ0.9 |
| 1.70โ1.99 (16,602 matches) | 52.3% | 22.9% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 2.00โ2.49 (31,311 matches) | 42.8% | 19.4% | ยฑ0.4 |
| 2.50+ (8,596 matches) | 36.0% | 16.1% | ยฑ0.8 |
Bettors often treat BTTS & Win as a 'win plus a bit'. It is closer to a coin flip laid on top of the win, and that discount has to show up in the price.
03Favourites concede in their wins at a near-constant rate
This is the chart that changed how I think about the market. It shows the share of each band's wins that included a conceded goal. Only 42.0% of sub-1.30 favourite wins had BTTS, against 44.7% for favourites at 2.50 or longer. Across all favourites the figure was 44.3%.
The heaviest favourites are only slightly more likely to keep a clean sheet when they win. Otherwise the conceding share is remarkably flat across the bands. Price tells you a great deal about whether a favourite wins and very little about how it wins.
View the data: how many favourite wins include a conceded goal?
| Share of favourite wins with BTTS | |
|---|---|
| <1.30 | 42.0% |
| 1.30โ1.49 | 43.4% |
| 1.50โ1.69 | 44.1% |
| 1.70โ1.99 | 43.8% |
| 2.00โ2.49 | 45.3% |
| 2.50+ | 44.7% |
So when I hunt for a brittle back line, I am looking for a team-specific edge that departs from this flat baseline. The price band alone will not give me one.
04Fair BTTS and win odds sit at a stable 1X2 multiple
The table converts each frequency into a break-even price with no margin. Fair odds run from 2.88 for sub-1.30 favourites through 3.25, 3.73, 4.36 and 5.15, up to 6.21 at 2.50 or longer. The final column divides that fair price by the average 1X2 price for the band.
The ratio is strikingly stable. It reads 2.40x for sub-1.30 favourites, whose average win price was 1.20, and 2.31x for favourites at 2.00โ2.49, whose average win price was 2.23. Every other band falls between those two figures.
| Favourite price | Matches | Avg price | Won | Won & BTTS | Fair odds | Fair / 1X2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.30 | 3,682 | 1.20 | 82.7% | 34.8% | 2.88 | 2.40x |
| 1.30โ1.49 | 5,943 | 1.40 | 70.9% | 30.8% | 3.25 | 2.33x |
| 1.50โ1.69 | 8,926 | 1.60 | 60.8% | 26.8% | 3.73 | 2.34x |
| 1.70โ1.99 | 16,602 | 1.84 | 52.3% | 22.9% | 4.36 | 2.37x |
| 2.00โ2.49 | 31,311 | 2.23 | 42.8% | 19.4% | 5.15 | 2.31x |
| 2.50+ | 8,596 | 2.58 | 36.0% | 16.1% | 6.21 | 2.40x |
One caution matters here. These records hold no BTTS prices, so this is a frequency study and not a test of betting returns. A bookmaker's BTTS & Win price also carries its own margin, which means a quote has to clear these fair figures by more than that margin before it offers any value.
BTTS & Win checklist
- Check the 1X2 band first. The combination rate ranged from 34.8% under 1.30 to 16.1% at 2.50 or longer, so the favourite's price sets your baseline before anything else.
- Compare against fair odds. Find the band's fair price in the table, from 2.88 at the short end to 6.21 at the long end. Anything at or below it offers no value once margin is included.
- Demand a team-specific conceding edge. Favourites concede in roughly 42.0% to 44.7% of their wins whatever the price. Back the combination only when you have a real reason to expect this side to concede more than that.
Quick answers
How often does the favourite win with both teams scoring?
Across 75,060 matches the favourite won with both teams scoring in 22.3% of games. That equals a fair price of 4.48 with no bookmaker margin.
What is a fair price for BTTS & Win on a heavy favourite?
For favourites priced under 1.30 the combination landed 34.8% of the time, which gives fair odds of 2.88. That is 2.40 times their average 1X2 win price of 1.20.
Do big favourites keep more clean sheets when they win?
Only slightly. 42.0% of wins by sub-1.30 favourites included a conceded goal, compared with 44.7% for favourites at 2.50 or longer.
I'm Suchada Phong, based in Bangkok, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at soccerbet.tips โ where a result and an open game have to land together for the bet to pay.
View profile โ
