How Often Does Home Win & BTTS Land? Fair Odds for All Six Outcomes
Ten seasons and 22 divisions show how often a winner concedes on the way, and the break-even price each of the six result-and-BTTS outcomes deserves.
Suchada PhongBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- 5.16fair odds, home win & BTTS
- 14.2%away win & BTTS, all matches
- 7.05fair odds, away win & BTTS
BTTS and win is a combination bet, and combinations are where casual bettors quietly overpay. You need a side good enough to win and leaky enough to concede, and only some teams fit both. So I went back through 75,485 matches across 22 European divisions to see how often each version actually lands.
The headline is simple. Home win & BTTS landed in 19.4% of matches, a fair price of 5.16. Away win & BTTS landed in 14.2%, fair at 7.05. If you want the match-by-match side of this market, my BTTS and win predictions page is where I apply these baselines. Here I want to set the ground rules first.
01All six result and BTTS outcomes with their fair prices
Every match ends in exactly one of these six boxes: a home win, draw or away win, each with or without both teams scoring. The fair odds column is simply the break-even decimal price with no bookmaker margin, so it is the floor any offered price has to clear before a bet is worth considering.
What stands out to me is that the clean-sheet versions are more common for winners. Home win & BTTS No landed in 24.1% against 19.4% for the BTTS Yes version, and away win & BTTS No landed in 16.1% against 14.2%. A winner keeping a clean sheet is the default, not the exception.
| Outcome | How often | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home win & BTTS Yes | 19.4% | 5.16 |
| Home win & BTTS No | 24.1% | 4.15 |
| Draw & BTTS Yes | 18.7% | 5.34 |
| Draw & BTTS No | 7.5% | 13.38 |
| Away win & BTTS Yes | 14.2% | 7.05 |
| Away win & BTTS No | 16.1% | 6.19 |
Add the two winner-plus-BTTS boxes together and the table tells you a result with a winner and BTTS landed in 33.5% of matches. That is your market in one figure, and it reminds me how selective this bet has to be.
02How home wins, draws and away wins were actually built
This chart reframes the same data by result. Of all home wins, 44.6% came with both teams scoring. Of all away wins, 46.8% did. Draws are the outlier: 71.5% of them had both teams scoring, because a draw with goals needs both sides on the scoresheet by definition.
The detail I care about is that away winners concede slightly more often than home winners. The away side is usually playing on the front foot less, so when it does win, the match has more often been open at both ends.
View the data: how each result was built
| BTTS Yes | BTTS No | |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Draw | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| Away win | 46.8% | 53.2% |
So when I back a winner to concede, I am taking a position that loses slightly more often than it wins even when my winner is correct. The team profile has to tilt that split, not the result alone.
03Top flights, second tiers and lower leagues compared
Splitting the pyramid by level shows how stable the combination is. In the top flights home win & BTTS landed 20.0% and away win & BTTS 14.8%, across 34,132 matches. In the third tier and below the figures were 19.3% and 14.6% across 19,022 matches. Those are close enough that I would not build a strategy on the gap.
The second tiers are the interesting row. Home win & BTTS dropped to 18.4% while draw & BTTS rose to 20.0%. Tighter, more evenly matched divisions turn more of their goal-trading games into shared points rather than wins.
View the data: by level of the pyramid
| Home win & BTTS | Away win & BTTS | Draw & BTTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top flights | 20.0% | 14.8% | 18.1% |
| Second tiers | 18.4% | 12.9% | 20.0% |
| Third tier and below | 19.3% | 14.6% | 18.4% |
My read: in second-tier football I demand a clearer edge in team quality before backing a winner with goals, because the draw is eating into this market there.
04Ten seasons of BTTS and win frequency, home and away
Over time the lines barely move. Home win & BTTS ranged from 17.9% in 2020/21 to 20.1% in 2016/17, and away win & BTTS from 13.3% in 2016/17 to 15.2% in 2023/24. The dip in home wins with goals around the empty-stadium seasons matches the wider weakening of home advantage then, while the away version drifted gently upward.
For a bettor the point is that these baselines are durable. A season that looks unusual is far more likely to be noise in a particular league or team than a shift in how football works.
View the data: btts & win by season
| Home win & BTTS | Away win & BTTS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 20.1% | 13.3% |
| 2017/18 | 19.8% | 13.8% |
| 2018/19 | 19.1% | 13.6% |
| 2019/20 | 19.2% | 14.1% |
| 2020/21 | 17.9% | 14.8% |
| 2021/22 | 18.2% | 14.9% |
| 2022/23 | 19.4% | 13.6% |
| 2023/24 | 20.0% | 15.2% |
| 2024/25 | 20.0% | 13.7% |
| 2025/26 | 20.1% | 14.7% |
One honest caveat: the records hold no BTTS prices, so this study gives frequencies and fair odds, not betting returns, and historical rates are not a forecast for any match.
BTTS & Win checklist
- Clear the fair price. Treat 5.16 for home win & BTTS and 7.05 for away win & BTTS as the league-wide break-even floor. A specific team needs a stronger case than average to justify anything shorter.
- Check the clean-sheet alternative. Home win & BTTS No landed in 24.1% against 19.4% for BTTS Yes. Ask whether your winner genuinely concedes before taking the goals side over the win to nil.
- Respect second-tier draws. In the second tiers draw & BTTS landed 20.0% while home win & BTTS fell to 18.4%. Insist on a clear quality gap before backing a winner in these divisions.
Quick answers
How often does home win and both teams to score land?
Across 75,485 European matches, the home side won with both teams scoring in 19.4% of games. That implies a fair price of 5.16 with no bookmaker margin.
What are fair odds for away win and BTTS?
Away win & BTTS landed in 14.2% of matches, which gives fair odds of 7.05. Away winners conceded in 46.8% of their wins, slightly more often than home winners at 44.6%.
Is BTTS and win more common in top-flight football?
Only marginally. Top flights saw home win & BTTS at 20.0% and away win & BTTS at 14.8%, compared with 19.3% and 14.6% in the third tier and below.
I'm Suchada Phong, based in Bangkok, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at soccerbet.tips — where a result and an open game have to land together for the bet to pay.
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