Both Teams To Score by Favourite Price: 75,060 Matches Tested
Does a short favourite really mean BTTS No? Across 75,060 matches the answer is yes, but only at the very top of the market. Everywhere else the price tells you almost nothing.
- 47.1%BTTS Yes when the favourite is under 1.30
- 53.2%BTTS Yes at the peak band, 2.00–2.49
- 2.12fair BTTS Yes odds with a sub-1.30 favourite
The lazy assumption in my market is that a short favourite means BTTS No. The big side wins comfortably and the underdog never gets a sniff. I wanted to test that against goals actually scored, so I took 75,060 matches with a clear favourite across 22 European divisions and split them by the favourite's pre-match price.
The headline is that the assumption is only partly right. With a favourite under 1.30, both teams scored in 47.1% of matches, the lowest of any band. From 1.50 upwards the rate barely moves, sitting between 52.2% and 53.2% against an overall figure of 52.3%. This is the baseline I check before I build the shortlist on my BTTS predictions today page.
01Only the very shortest favourites drag the BTTS rate down
Read the bars from left to right and the shape is clear. Under 1.30, BTTS landed in 47.1% of 3,682 matches, with a 95% range of ±1.6. At 1.30–1.49 it climbs to 50.5%. After that the line goes flat: every band from 1.50 up sits between 52.2% and 53.2%, peaking in the 2.00–2.49 band.
The gap between the heaviest favourites and that peak is +6.1 points. That is a real difference, but it is concentrated almost entirely in the first two bars. A favourite in the 1.50–1.69 band and one in the 2.00–2.49 band produce BTTS at nearly the same rate.
View the data: btts rate by favourite price
| Share of matches where both teams scored | |
|---|---|
| <1.30 | 47.1% |
| 1.30–1.49 | 50.5% |
| 1.50–1.69 | 52.2% |
| 1.70–1.99 | 52.5% |
| 2.00–2.49 | 53.2% |
| 2.50+ | 52.2% |
What I take from this is that price is a blunt tool in the middle of the market. Once the favourite is longer than about 1.50, I stop letting the odds steer me and go back to the work that matters: full-backs, defensive lines, set-piece marking and genuine chance creation at both ends.
02Short favourites score freely, while their underdogs go quiet
The stacked bars show why heavy favourites suppress BTTS. Under 1.30, only the favourite scored in 47.9% of matches, the underdog alone scored in just 2.4%, and neither side scored in 2.6%. BTTS No with a heavy favourite is almost entirely a story of the favourite keeping a clean sheet. It is not a story of a tight goalless game.
Move to the 2.50+ band and the picture changes completely. Only the favourite scored in 19.9% of matches and only the underdog in 18.3%, which is close to even. Goalless matches rise to 9.7%.
View the data: who found the net
| Both scored | Only favourite scored | Only underdog scored | Neither scored | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.30 | 47.1% | 47.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% |
| 1.30–1.49 | 50.5% | 40.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| 1.50–1.69 | 52.3% | 34.0% | 8.0% | 5.7% |
| 1.70–1.99 | 52.5% | 29.4% | 10.6% | 7.5% |
| 2.00–2.49 | 53.2% | 23.4% | 15.0% | 8.4% |
| 2.50+ | 52.1% | 19.9% | 18.3% | 9.7% |
This is where I think in terms of tempo. With a sub-1.30 favourite, the BTTS question shrinks to one thing: can the underdog create a single clear chance? I look at their counter-attacking threat, their set pieces and whether the favourite's keeper is shaky. Then I ask whether the favourite keeps pushing bodies forward once they are comfortably ahead.
03Away favourites concede slightly more often than home favourites
The heatmap splits each band by venue, and the away-favourite column is a shade warmer in every row. Under 1.30, home favourites saw BTTS in 46.6% of 3,025 matches, while away favourites saw it in 49.5%. In the 2.00–2.49 band the split is 52.8% at home against 53.9% away.
That fits what I see on the pitch. A home underdog has a crowd behind it and tends to commit more players forward, even against a much stronger side. The caveat is sample size: there were only 657 away favourites under 1.30, so I treat that particular cell as a lean rather than a rule.
Away favourites under 1.30 are rare; see facts for sample sizes.
View the data: home favourite or away favourite
| Home favourite | Away favourite | |
|---|---|---|
| <1.30 | 46.6% | 49.5% |
| 1.30–1.49 | 50.2% | 51.3% |
| 1.50–1.69 | 51.9% | 53.3% |
| 1.70–1.99 | 52.2% | 53.4% |
| 2.00–2.49 | 52.8% | 53.9% |
| 2.50+ | 52.0% | 52.4% |
04Fair BTTS prices barely move until the favourite drops below 1.50
The table turns each frequency into a break-even price with no margin. With a sub-1.30 favourite, fair BTTS Yes is 2.12 and fair BTTS No is 1.89. At 1.30–1.49 the two sides are almost level, at 1.98 and 2.02. In the 2.00–2.49 band, the largest at 31,311 matches, fair Yes drops to 1.88 and fair No stretches to 2.13.
One honest limitation: these records hold no actual BTTS prices, so this is a set of frequencies and fair odds rather than proof of profit. The bands also mix leagues with different scoring levels, so a high-scoring division with lots of short favourites can tilt a row.
| Favourite price | Matches | BTTS Yes | Fair Yes | BTTS No | Fair No |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.30 | 3,682 | 47.1% | 2.12 | 52.9% | 1.89 |
| 1.30–1.49 | 5,943 | 50.5% | 1.98 | 49.5% | 2.02 |
| 1.50–1.69 | 8,926 | 52.2% | 1.91 | 47.8% | 2.09 |
| 1.70–1.99 | 16,602 | 52.5% | 1.90 | 47.5% | 2.11 |
| 2.00–2.49 | 31,311 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 46.8% | 2.13 |
| 2.50+ | 8,596 | 52.2% | 1.92 | 47.8% | 2.09 |
I use the table as a sense check. If BTTS No with a heavy favourite is offered well under 1.89, the bookmaker's margin is probably eating whatever edge the price band gives you, and I need a team-specific reason to bet it.
BTTS checklist
- Check the favourite's price band. Only the sub-1.30 and 1.30–1.49 bands meaningfully lower BTTS, at 47.1% and 50.5%. Above 1.50 the rate stays between 52.2% and 53.2%, so price alone is no reason to bet against it.
- Judge the underdog's single chance. With a sub-1.30 favourite, the underdog alone scored in just 2.4% of matches, so BTTS depends on whether they can breach the favourite's defence once. Check their counter-attacks and set pieces before anything else.
- Compare against fair odds. Fair BTTS No is 1.89 with a sub-1.30 favourite, and fair BTTS Yes is 1.88 in the 2.00–2.49 band. If the offered price sits clearly below those numbers, the margin has probably taken the value.
Quick answers
Does a heavy favourite mean both teams won't score?
It lowers the chance but does not remove it. With a favourite under 1.30, both teams still scored in 47.1% of 3,682 matches, compared with 52.3% across all matches with a favourite.
What is the BTTS percentage in football overall?
Across 75,060 matches with a clear favourite in 22 European divisions, both teams scored in 52.3% and at least one side failed to score in 47.7%.
Is BTTS more likely when the away team is favourite?
Slightly, in every price band. Under 1.30, BTTS landed in 49.5% of away-favourite matches against 46.6% for home favourites, though only 657 away favourites fell into that band.
I'm Thandiwe Nkosi, based in Cape Town, and I write the both-teams-to-score tips at soccerbet.tips — reading defensive frailty and real attacking intent rather than chasing the obvious high-scoring names.
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