HT/FT for Home Favourites: All 9 Results by Price Band
A home favourite winning and a home favourite leading at the break are two different bets. Here is how all nine HT/FT outcomes split by price, with break-even odds for each band.
Sylvie MarchandHalf Time / Full Time specialistReviewed by Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- 54.4%Home/Home rate, home favourite under 1.40
- 21.4%Home/Home rate, home favourite 2.30+
- 5.82fair odds of Draw/Home, all home favourites
Back a strong home side in the half-time/full-time market and you are not betting on a win. You are betting on a win that is already showing at the interval, and that second condition is where most of the price sits. I took 52,386 matches across 22 European leagues from 2016/17-2025/26 where the home side started as favourite and split each one into its nine HT/FT outcomes by price band.
The headline is simple. Home/Home landed 54.4% of the time for favourites under 1.40 but only 21.4% at 2.30 or longer, and a level score at the break is far more common than most punters assume. Across all home favourites, Draw/Home alone came in 17.2% of the time, which puts its fair odds at 5.82. These rates are the backdrop to everything I write for our HT/FT predictions today page.
01Nine HT/FT outcomes mapped across every home price band
Read the grid from top to bottom and the shape is clear. Home/Home dominates the short end, sliding from 54.4% under 1.40 to 21.4% at 2.30+, while Draw/Draw climbs the other way, from 7.8% to 18.3%. By the longest band, a level score at both whistles is almost as likely as the favourite leading and winning.
Draw/Home is the quieter story. It holds at about a fifth of matches through the shorter bands, with 21.2% under 1.40 and 20.6% at 1.40–1.59, and only drifts to 13.8% at the long end. The full reversals are rare: Away/Home landed 2.9% of all home-favourite matches and Home/Away just 1.7%.
View the data: all nine ht/ft results for home favourites
| <1.40 | 1.40–1.59 | 1.60–1.89 | 1.90–2.29 | 2.30+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home/Home | 54.4% | 41.2% | 33.3% | 26.9% | 21.4% |
| Draw/Home | 21.2% | 20.6% | 18.8% | 16.1% | 13.8% |
| Away/Home | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Home/Draw | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| Draw/Draw | 7.8% | 11.8% | 15.2% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| Away/Draw | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% |
| Home/Away | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% |
| Draw/Away | 2.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 12.1% |
| Away/Away | 3.4% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 17.6% |
What I take from this is that the hinge sits mostly between a draw and a lead at the break, not between winning and losing. Comebacks from behind are a footnote at every price, not a strategy.
02The gap between winning outright and leading at the break
This is the chart I would put in front of anyone who backs Home/Home simply because they fancy the home win. Under 1.40, the favourite won 79.2% of matches but led and won only 54.4%, a gap of +24.8 points. At 2.30 or longer the win rate is 37.7% against a Home/Home rate of 21.4%, a gap of +16.3 points.
View the data: win the match vs lead at ht and win
| Won the match | Home/Home | |
|---|---|---|
| <1.40 (5,074 matches) | 79.2% | 54.4% |
| 1.40–1.59 (5,459 matches) | 65.3% | 41.2% |
| 1.60–1.89 (11,816 matches) | 55.5% | 33.3% |
| 1.90–2.29 (17,970 matches) | 45.5% | 26.9% |
| 2.30+ (12,067 matches) | 37.7% | 21.4% |
The gap is widest exactly where people feel safest. Short-priced favourites lose the most HT/FT value to a slow first half, because they win so many matches they have not yet broken open by the interval.
03How home favourite wins split by the half-time score
Turn the question round and look only at the wins. Of the victories by favourites under 1.40, 68.7% came from a half-time lead, 26.7% from level and 4.6% from behind. At 2.30 or longer the lead share falls to 56.7% and the level share rises to 36.8%.
So the shorter the price, the more a win is built in the first half. The longer the price, the more it is assembled after the break, through substitutions and a change of shape against a tiring opponent. Trailing at half-time stays a small slice everywhere, between 4.6% and 6.5% of wins.
View the data: how home favourite wins are built
| Led at HT (Home/Home) | Level at HT (Draw/Home) | Behind at HT (Away/Home) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| <1.40 | 68.7% | 26.7% | 4.6% |
| 1.40–1.59 | 63.1% | 31.5% | 5.4% |
| 1.60–1.89 | 60.1% | 33.9% | 6.0% |
| 1.90–2.29 | 59.0% | 35.4% | 5.6% |
| 2.30+ | 56.7% | 36.8% | 6.5% |
This is the rhythm I watch for. A home favourite that habitually starts slowly belongs in the Draw/Home column, whatever its price suggests about Home/Home.
04Break-even HT/FT prices for home favourites by band
The table turns those frequencies into the minimum prices that would break even with no margin. Home/Home needs 1.84 under 1.40, 3.00 at 1.60–1.89 and 4.68 at 2.30+. Draw/Home needs 4.72 at the short end and 7.22 at the long end, while Draw/Draw drops from 12.85 to 5.46.
The caveat I stress above all: HT/FT books carry a much heavier margin than the 1X2, so these are floors, not quotes. The shortest prices also come from a small group of dominant clubs, and a few hundred bets can wander a long way from any of these historical rates.
| Home price | Matches | Home/Home | Draw/Home | Draw/Draw | Home/Draw | Away/Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.40 | 5,074 | 1.84 | 4.72 | 12.85 | 29.67 | 27.43 |
| 1.40–1.59 | 5,459 | 2.43 | 4.86 | 8.45 | 20.92 | 28.58 |
| 1.60–1.89 | 11,816 | 3.00 | 5.31 | 6.56 | 17.88 | 29.99 |
| 1.90–2.29 | 17,970 | 3.72 | 6.20 | 5.60 | 16.94 | 39.41 |
| 2.30+ | 12,067 | 4.68 | 7.22 | 5.46 | 17.12 | 40.91 |
Where I look first is Draw/Draw in the longer bands, where a 5.46 break-even sits against an outcome landing in 18.3% of matches, and Draw/Home at 1.40–1.59, where the floor is 4.86.
HT/FT checklist
- Check the price band first. Home/Home falls from 54.4% under 1.40 to 21.4% at 2.30+, so the band decides which column you should even be considering.
- Respect the half-time draw. Draw/Home landed 17.2% across all home favourites, fair odds 5.82. Demand at least that, and more once the margin is counted.
- Compare quotes to fair odds. If a Home/Home price for a favourite in the 1.90–2.29 band sits below 3.72, you are paying the margin and more. Walk away rather than force it.
Quick answers
How often does Home/Home land when the home team is favourite?
Across 52,386 home-favourite matches, Home/Home landed 31.2%. It ranges from 54.4% for favourites under 1.40 down to 21.4% at 2.30 or longer.
What are fair odds for Draw/Home on a home favourite?
Across all home favourites Draw/Home landed 17.2%, which makes fair odds 5.82. By band the break-even runs from 4.72 under 1.40 to 7.22 at 2.30+.
How often does a home favourite come back from behind at half-time to win?
Away/Home landed 2.9% of all home-favourite matches. Even for favourites under 1.40, only 4.6% of their wins came after trailing at the break.
I'm Sylvie Marchand, based in Cannes, and I write the half-time/full-time tips at soccerbet.tips — focused on how teams begin, how they close, and everything that shifts in between.
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