1-0, 2-0 or 2-1? Which Home Win Score Is Most Likely at Each Price
1-0 is the most common home-win score overall. The home price decides which of 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 actually leads, and what each one is worth.
Margot DelacroixCorrect Score Predictions specialistReviewed by Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- 23.4%of home wins finished 1-0
- 20.3%of home wins finished 2-1
- 58.0%wins by home sides <1.40 not 1-0/2-0/2-1
Ask most punters which score a home win usually lands on and you will hear 2-1 or 2-0. Across 32,810 home wins in 22 European leagues, the answer is 1-0, at 23.4%, with 2-1 on 20.3% and 2-0 on 16.8%. I check that ranking before building my exact score predictions, but the headline figure hides how much the mix shifts with the home price.
The short version is that the shorter the home side, the less any single scoreline matters. Below 1.40, 2-0 edges ahead and 58.0% of wins land somewhere other than the three classic scores. At the outsider end, home wins are almost always tight. Below I go through the mix, the fair prices it implies, and whether the pattern holds from season to season.
01How the home price reshapes the winning scoreline mix
Each bar shows only the matches the home side won, split into 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and everything else. With the home side under 1.40, the three classic scores are almost level: 13.6% for 1-0, 15.2% for 2-0 and 13.2% for 2-1. The other 58.0% is made up of bigger margins. These favourites tend to win comfortably when they win at all.
Move out along the price bands and the picture flips. At 2.00โ2.49, 1-0 takes 26.1% of home wins and 2-1 takes 21.7%. At 3.50+, 1-0 and 2-1 are close to level, with 2-1 on 28.3% and 2-0 down to 13.4%. When an outsider wins at home, it is usually by a single goal, and the away side often scores too.
View the data: which score do home wins end on?
| 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | Any other home win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.40 | 13.6% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 58.0% |
| 1.40โ1.69 | 19.3% | 17.4% | 18.1% | 45.2% |
| 1.70โ1.99 | 23.2% | 18.4% | 19.6% | 38.8% |
| 2.00โ2.49 | 26.1% | 17.5% | 21.7% | 34.7% |
| 2.50โ3.49 | 28.2% | 15.4% | 23.7% | 32.7% |
| 3.50+ | 29.5% | 13.4% | 28.3% | 28.8% |
My conclusion is that 2-0 is a favourite's scoreline and 2-1 is an underdog's scoreline. The short-priced side needs a clean sheet and a second goal. The longer-priced side needs to survive a match the visitors will push back into. Overall, 3-0 and 3-1 account for a further 9.2% and 9.3% of home wins, which explains much of the large grey block at the short end.
02Fair break-even prices for the three common home scores
The first chart describes wins. A correct-score bet pays out on all matches, including draws and away wins, so this table divides by every fixture in each band. With the home side under 1.40, 2-0 landed 12.1% of matches, a fair price of 8.28, and 1-0 landed 10.7%, or 9.31. At 2.00โ2.49, 1-0 hit 11.1% (8.97) and 2-1 hit 9.3% (10.79).
The single most frequent outcome in the table is 1-0 in the 1.70โ1.99 band, at 12.2% (8.22). At the long end the numbers drop sharply: 2-0 with a 3.50+ home side came up just 2.5% of the time, a fair price of 40.34.
| Home price | Matches | 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.40 | 5,076 | 10.7% (9.31) | 12.1% (8.28) | 10.5% (9.56) |
| 1.40โ1.69 | 9,159 | 12.1% (8.27) | 10.9% (9.19) | 11.3% (8.84) |
| 1.70โ1.99 | 12,368 | 12.2% (8.22) | 9.6% (10.38) | 10.3% (9.75) |
| 2.00โ2.49 | 20,992 | 11.1% (8.97) | 7.5% (13.35) | 9.3% (10.79) |
| 2.50โ3.49 | 17,684 | 9.1% (10.98) | 5.0% (20.10) | 7.7% (13.07) |
| 3.50+ | 10,206 | 5.5% (18.22) | 2.5% (40.34) | 5.2% (19.08) |
The main caveat is this. Bookmakers take a much bigger margin on correct-score markets than on match odds, so every figure in that column is the minimum price worth accepting, not a price you should expect to be offered. The shortest bands are also dominated by a handful of clubs per league. These are historical frequencies, not forecasts, and any single correct-score bet loses far more often than it wins.
03Season-by-season shares show the ranking barely moves
A pattern is only useful if it holds over time. Across the 10 seasons, the 1-0 share of home wins stayed between 21.1% and 24.9%, and 2-1 stayed between 19.6% and 21.2%. The low point for 1-0 came in 2023/24, and even then it stayed ahead of 2-1.
The 2-0 line deserves a closer look. It has drifted lower over the more recent seasons while 2-1 has held steady or nudged up. This is a small movement, not a trend I would bet on alone. It does support my habit of looking past 2-0 unless the home side is genuinely short.
View the data: 1-0 vs 2-0 vs 2-1, season by season
| 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 22.9% | 17.3% | 20.9% |
| 2017/18 | 23.1% | 16.7% | 19.9% |
| 2018/19 | 23.3% | 18.0% | 19.6% |
| 2019/20 | 23.5% | 17.0% | 20.9% |
| 2020/21 | 24.4% | 17.3% | 20.1% |
| 2021/22 | 23.3% | 18.4% | 19.9% |
| 2022/23 | 24.9% | 16.2% | 20.6% |
| 2023/24 | 21.1% | 16.4% | 19.8% |
| 2024/25 | 23.9% | 15.9% | 20.5% |
| 2025/26 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 21.2% |
The ordering of 1-0 first, 2-1 second and 2-0 third has held in every season shown. That consistency is why I treat it as a base rate and then adjust it using the price, not the other way round.
Correct Score checklist
- Start from the price band. Check which band the home odds fall in before choosing a scoreline. Under 1.40, 2-0 leads at 15.2% of wins. At 2.50โ3.49, 1-0 leads at 28.2%.
- Compare against fair odds. Only take a correct score if the offered price beats the fair figure for that band, such as 8.97 for 1-0 at 2.00โ2.49. Because correct-score margins are wide, that comparison will rule out most offers.
- Respect the big-margin block. With a heavy home favourite, 58.0% of their wins fall outside 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1. Spread your view across higher scores rather than forcing one narrow result.
Quick answers
What is the most common score when the home team wins?
1-0. It accounted for 23.4% of 32,810 home wins, ahead of 2-1 on 20.3% and 2-0 on 16.8%.
Is 2-0 or 1-0 more likely when the home side is a big favourite?
Under 1.40, 2-0 is slightly more likely. It landed 12.1% of all matches, against 10.7% for 1-0, which gives fair odds of 8.28 and 9.31.
How often does 2-1 come up when the home side is an outsider?
With the home side at 3.50+, 2-1 made up 28.3% of their wins. As a share of all those matches it was 5.2%, a fair price of 19.08.
I'm Margot Delacroix, based in Beverly Hills, and I write the correct score predictions at soccerbet.tips โ built on goal distributions and game state, never on hoping a neat final number lands.
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