HT/FT Stats for the Championship, League One and League Two
Across 25,012 English league matches, the Championship and League Two produce more Draw/Draw finishes than the Premier League. Half-time flips stay rare in every division.
Sylvie MarchandHalf Time / Full Time specialistReviewed by Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief7 min read
- 13.6%Draw/Draw rate in the Premier League
- 27.3%Home/Home rate in the Premier League
- 25,012English league matches, five divisions
Most HT/FT thinking in England is built on Premier League habits, and I have long suspected the lower divisions keep a different rhythm. So I sorted 25,012 league matches across five divisions by their half-time and full-time results, from the Premier League down to the National League. The question is simple: does the hinge in the middle of a match swing differently once you leave the top flight?
The answer is yes, but only in a few specific places. Draw/Draw lands 16.2% of the time in the Championship against 13.6% in the Premier League. The top flight's Home/Home rate of 27.3% is the highest in the pyramid, and reversals barely move from one division to the next. My daily selections built on this kind of reading are on my best HT/FT bets today page.
01Where the nine HT/FT results sit across five English divisions
Read the heatmap row by row rather than column by column. Home/Home is the biggest cell everywhere, but it slides from 27.3% in the Premier League to 25.9% in the Championship, 25.3% in League One, 25.1% in League Two and 24.9% in the National League. The strongest home sides in the country are concentrated at the top, and they tend to settle matches early.
The row that stands out is Draw/Draw. The Championship at 16.2% and League Two at 16.3% sit clearly above the Premier League's 13.6%. League One at 14.9% and the National League at 14.6% fall in between. Away/Away follows no tidy slope at all: 18.7% in the top flight, 16.6% in the Championship and 18.8% in the National League.
View the data: the nine ht/ft results down the english pyramid
| Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two | National League | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home/Home | 27.3% | 25.9% | 25.3% | 25.1% | 24.9% |
| Draw/Home | 14.4% | 14.7% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 14.8% |
| Away/Home | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| Home/Draw | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Draw/Draw | 13.6% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 16.3% | 14.6% |
| Away/Draw | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Home/Away | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Draw/Away | 11.1% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.4% |
| Away/Away | 18.7% | 16.6% | 18.2% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
What I take from this is that the lower leagues are not simply a weaker copy of the Premier League. The Championship and League Two in particular produce more matches that never truly open up, level at the break and level at the end. Draw/Home, the slow-burner outcome I watch most closely, is remarkably steady: 14.7% in the Championship and 14.4% in the Premier League.
02Turning those frequencies into break-even prices by division
This table converts each rate into fair odds, which is one divided by the observed frequency with no bookmaker margin. It is the price at which a bet on that outcome would have broken even across the whole sample. Draw/Draw shows the clearest gap: 6.18 in the Championship and 6.13 in League Two, against 7.38 in the Premier League.
Elsewhere the prices cluster together. Draw/Away runs from 8.63 in League Two to 9.55 in League One, and Home/Home drifts from 3.66 at the top to 4.02 in the National League.
| League | Matches | Home/Home | Draw/Draw | Draw/Home | Draw/Away | Away/Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 3,800 | 3.66 | 7.38 | 6.95 | 8.98 | 5.36 |
| Championship | 5,517 | 3.86 | 6.18 | 6.82 | 8.73 | 6.03 |
| League One | 5,365 | 3.96 | 6.70 | 6.40 | 9.55 | 5.49 |
| League Two | 5,404 | 3.98 | 6.13 | 6.84 | 8.63 | 5.91 |
| National League | 4,926 | 4.02 | 6.86 | 6.75 | 8.78 | 5.33 |
This is the caveat that matters most. HT/FT markets carry a far heavier margin than the match result market, so these figures are a floor, not a target. If a major bookmaker offers Championship Draw/Draw below 6.18, history says you are paying to play. I only become interested when the quoted price sits comfortably above the fair line, and even then I want a reason specific to the fixture.
03Draw/Draw season by season, EFL against the Premier League
A long-run average can hide one freak year, so this chart tracks Draw/Draw season by season for the three EFL divisions combined against the Premier League. The EFL line is the steadier of the two, ranging from 13.8% to 17.4%. The Premier League swings more widely, from 11.1% to 17.6%.
View the data: draw/draw season by season
| EFL Draw/Draw | Premier League Draw/Draw | |
|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 15.4% | 13.2% |
| 2017/18 | 15.4% | 17.6% |
| 2018/19 | 16.4% | 11.1% |
| 2019/20 | 17.4% | 13.2% |
| 2020/21 | 16.5% | 13.9% |
| 2021/22 | 16.2% | 13.4% |
| 2022/23 | 16.7% | 13.4% |
| 2023/24 | 13.8% | 11.3% |
| 2024/25 | 16.5% | 11.8% |
| 2025/26 | 14.2% | 16.6% |
That steadiness is the point. The EFL sat above the Premier League in most seasons, but not all. The top flight's 17.6% in 2017/18 and 16.6% in 2025/26 both beat the EFL figure. I treat the lower-league Draw/Draw tilt as a persistent lean rather than a certainty, and I would never stake on it because of one season's run.
04Half-time flips barely change as you drop down the pyramid
Reversals, meaning Home/Away plus Away/Home, are the outcomes that make HT/FT feel thrilling and pay the longest prices. They are also rare everywhere. The Premier League tops this chart at 5.3%, the Championship lands 5.1%, League Two 4.8%, and the wider sample across all leagues also sits at 4.8%.
View the data: how often the half-time result flips
| Home/Away plus Away/Home, share of matches | |
|---|---|
| Premier League | 5.3% |
| Championship | 5.1% |
| League One | 4.6% |
| League Two | 4.8% |
| National League | 5.0% |
| All 22 leagues | 4.8% |
I grew up watching leads collapse, so I understand the pull of this bet. But the data says the lower leagues are no more chaotic than the top flight once the interval passes. If anything, a full flip is slightly more common in the Premier League. A reversal needs a specific story, such as a side that habitually starts slowly and a coach who changes shape around the hour. A general belief that lower divisions are wilder is not enough.
HT/FT checklist
- Check the division first. Draw/Draw lands 16.2% in the Championship and 16.3% in League Two but only 13.6% in the Premier League. Don't carry top-flight assumptions down the pyramid.
- Price against fair odds. Compare any quote with the break-even line, such as 6.18 for Championship Draw/Draw. Pass when the margin swallows it.
- Demand a story for reversals. Flips landed in only 5.1% of Championship matches and 5.3% of Premier League matches. Back them only when a team's habitual slow start gives you a concrete reason.
Quick answers
What is the most common HT/FT result in the Championship?
Home/Home, at 25.9% of matches. Away/Away follows at 16.6%, with Draw/Draw just behind at 16.2%, a higher share than the Premier League's 13.6%.
Are HT/FT reversals more common in the lower leagues?
No. Home/Away plus Away/Home landed in 5.3% of Premier League matches, 5.1% of Championship matches and 4.8% of League Two matches.
What are fair odds for Draw/Draw in League Two?
Based on the observed rate of 16.3%, fair odds are 6.13, compared with 7.38 in the Premier League. Historically, any price below that line has lost money over time.
I'm Sylvie Marchand, based in Cannes, and I write the half-time/full-time tips at soccerbet.tips โ focused on how teams begin, how they close, and everything that shifts in between.
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