HT/FT in the Süper Lig, Greece and Scotland's Lower Leagues
Five leagues the market watches less closely, 10,205 matches, nine HT/FT outcomes. Greece stalls, Scotland's basement travels well, and the Süper Lig turns slightly more often than the rest.
Sylvie MarchandHalf Time / Full Time specialistReviewed by Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief7 min read
- 26.9%Home/Home rate in the Süper Lig
- 4.7%reversal rate in Scottish League Two
- 10,205matches in the five leagues
I wanted to know whether the leagues that get less attention behave like the big ones once you split each match at the interval. So I set the Süper Lig, Super League Greece and Scotland's three lower divisions against 60,399 matches from 16 main European leagues. These are the same splits I check before writing up my HT/FT predictions today page.
The headline answer is that the shape is familiar but the weights are not. Greece produces Draw/Draw at 19.4%, against 15.8% in the main leagues. Scottish League Two hands Away/Away 21.3%. The Süper Lig has the most turnarounds of the five at 5.2%. These are not dramatic gaps, but in a nine-way market small shifts in frequency move the break-even price a long way.
01Half-time states show Greece level, Scotland's basement away
Everything in this market starts at the hinge, so I begin with the score at the break. Greece is level at half-time 44.1% of the time, the highest of any group here and above the 41.7% across the main leagues. Scottish League Two sits at the other end, level only 37.3% of the time.
The away column matters just as much. In League Two the visitors lead at the break 29.4% of the time, against 24.7% in the main leagues. Home sides there lead about as often as anywhere, so the extra decisive first halves come almost entirely from away teams.
View the data: who leads at half-time?
| Home leads | Level | Away leads | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Süper Lig | 34.5% | 40.7% | 24.8% |
| Super League Greece | 31.9% | 44.1% | 24.0% |
| Scottish Championship | 32.2% | 41.2% | 26.6% |
| Scottish League One | 33.2% | 39.5% | 27.3% |
| Scottish League Two | 33.3% | 37.3% | 29.4% |
| 16 main leagues | 33.6% | 41.7% | 24.7% |
For me this sets the frame. Greek first halves are cagey, and the cagey ones feed the draw-led outcomes. Lower Scottish first halves are open, and they open towards the away end more than you would expect.
02The nine-outcome grid across five less-covered leagues
The full grid shows where those half-time states end up. Greece's Draw/Draw at 19.4% is the standout cell, and the Scottish Championship at 17.1% also runs above the main leagues. Scottish League One goes the other way at 13.0%, and League Two at 13.7% is not far off it.
Look down the Away/Away row and it climbs steadily through Scotland: 18.8% in the Championship, 19.7% in League One and 21.3% in League Two, all above the 16.9% benchmark. The Süper Lig, by contrast, tracks the main leagues closely, with Home/Home at 26.9% against 26.0%.
View the data: the nine ht/ft results in five less-covered leagues
| Süper Lig | Greece | Scot. Champ. | Scot. L1 | Scot. L2 | 16 main leagues | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home/Home | 26.9% | 26.5% | 24.3% | 25.7% | 26.5% | 26.0% |
| Draw/Home | 15.5% | 15.0% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 14.9% |
| Away/Home | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
| Home/Draw | 5.2% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% |
| Draw/Draw | 15.0% | 19.4% | 17.1% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 15.8% |
| Away/Draw | 5.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% |
| Home/Away | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Draw/Away | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.9% |
| Away/Away | 16.7% | 17.9% | 18.8% | 19.7% | 21.3% | 16.9% |
The quieter cells tell a story too. In Greece, Home/Draw lands only 3.9% and Away/Draw only 3.5%, so a side that leads at the break rarely lets the match slip back to level. Greek matches are slow to break open, but once they do they tend to stay that way.
03Full reversals stay rare, with the Süper Lig turning most
A reversal is a team leading at half-time and losing at full time, Home/Away or Away/Home. I grew up watching these from Cannes and they still pull the eye, but they are the rarest results on the card. The Süper Lig leads this group at 5.2%, a touch above the 4.9% in the main leagues.
The Scottish Championship is the most stable at 4.0%, with Greece close behind at 4.1%. Greece's Home/Away rate of 1.5% is among the lowest cells in the whole study.
View the data: half-time result flipped at full time
| Home/Away plus Away/Home, share of matches | |
|---|---|
| Süper Lig | 5.2% |
| Super League Greece | 4.1% |
| Scottish Championship | 4.0% |
| Scottish League One | 4.5% |
| Scottish League Two | 4.7% |
| 16 main leagues | 4.9% |
I treat the Süper Lig figure as a sign that comebacks are slightly more alive there, not as a reason to chase them. Even at its highest, a full turnaround happens in roughly one match in twenty.
04Fair odds put a floor under each HT/FT price
The table turns frequency into a break-even decimal price with no margin. Greece's Draw/Draw has fair odds of 5.17, while the same outcome in the Süper Lig needs 6.65. If a price for Greek Draw/Draw resembles a Turkish one, someone has ignored the difference.
In Scottish League Two, Away/Away carries fair odds of 4.69, much shorter than Draw/Draw at 7.29. Scottish League One's Draw/Draw sits at 7.67, the longest fair price for that outcome in the table.
| League | Matches | Home/Home | Draw/Draw | Away/Away | Draw/Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Süper Lig | 3,336 | 26.9% (3.72) | 15.0% (6.65) | 16.7% (6.00) | 15.5% (6.45) |
| Super League Greece | 1,829 | 26.5% (3.77) | 19.4% (5.17) | 17.9% (5.58) | 15.0% (6.65) |
| Scottish Championship | 1,691 | 24.3% (4.11) | 17.1% (5.85) | 18.8% (5.32) | 13.4% (7.45) |
| Scottish League One | 1,673 | 25.7% (3.89) | 13.0% (7.67) | 19.7% (5.09) | 15.0% (6.67) |
| Scottish League Two | 1,676 | 26.5% (3.77) | 13.7% (7.29) | 21.3% (4.69) | 13.2% (7.55) |
The main caveat is the margin. HT/FT carries a much heavier bookmaker margin than the plain match result, so these figures are the lowest prices I would consider, never a fair quote. The Scottish leagues also play only 180 matches a season, and Greece is missing two seasons, so I hold these numbers more loosely than the Süper Lig's 3,336.
HT/FT checklist
- Check the league's draw profile. Before backing Draw/Draw, know which league you are in. Greece lands it 19.4% of the time, Scottish League One only 13.0%.
- Respect the travelling side. In Scotland's lower tiers Away/Away climbs as far as 21.3% in League Two. Do not price visitors there as you would in the main leagues, where it is 16.9%.
- Demand more than fair odds. Treat the fair price as a floor. Greek Draw/Draw at 5.17 or League Two Away/Away at 4.69 only interests me if the quote clears it comfortably after the margin.
Quick answers
Which league has the most Draw/Draw results in HT/FT betting?
Of the five leagues studied, Super League Greece has the highest Draw/Draw rate at 19.4%, against 15.8% across the 16 main European leagues. That works out to fair odds of 5.17.
How often does the half-time leader lose in the Süper Lig?
Reversals, Home/Away or Away/Home, landed 5.2% of the time in the Süper Lig. That is the highest of the five leagues and slightly above the 4.9% in the main leagues.
Do away teams do better in Scotland's lower leagues?
In HT/FT terms, yes. Away/Away lands 21.3% in Scottish League Two and 19.7% in League One, against 16.9% in the 16 main leagues.
I'm Sylvie Marchand, based in Cannes, and I write the half-time/full-time tips at soccerbet.tips — focused on how teams begin, how they close, and everything that shifts in between.
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