Underdog Double Chance (X2): How Often Does It Actually Land?
I tested how often the draw-or-underdog double chance lands at every favourite price, and where the posted number stops matching reality.
- −8.5%flat-stake return at a major bookmaker
- 5.79fair odds when the favourite is under 1.30
- 1.56fair odds when the favourite is 2.50+
Backing the draw or the underdog feels like a sensible hedge against a favourite you don't fully trust. On my 1X2 football predictions page I treat the draw as a live result rather than a leftover, so I wanted to know whether the double chance built on it is priced honestly. I took 75,060 matches with a favourite across 22 European divisions and checked how often X2, or 1X when the away side was favoured, actually came in.
The headline answer is close, but not close enough. The bet landed 49.5% of the time against 50.5% priced, and backing it on every match returned −8.5% at a major bookmaker and −3.1% at the best available prices. The shortfall is not spread evenly, though. It sits overwhelmingly where the favourite is shortest, and that is the part a bettor can act on.
01Short favourites leave the double chance landing well below price
Each row pairs the margin-free priced probability with how often the bet actually landed. Against favourites under 1.30, the double chance came in 17.3% of the time against 21.0% priced. At 1.30–1.49 it was 29.1% against 32.4%. Those are the widest gaps on the chart.
As the favourite drifts, the two dots almost meet. At 1.90–2.09 the bet landed 52.5% against 52.7% priced. At 2.50 or longer it landed 64.0% against 63.3%, the only band where it beat its own price.
View the data: underdog double chance: priced vs landed
| Priced (margin removed) | Landed | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fav <1.30 (3,682 matches) | 21.0% | 17.3% | ±1.2 |
| Fav 1.30–1.49 (5,943 matches) | 32.4% | 29.1% | ±1.2 |
| Fav 1.50–1.69 (8,926 matches) | 40.9% | 39.2% | ±1 |
| Fav 1.70–1.89 (10,805 matches) | 47.3% | 45.9% | ±0.9 |
| Fav 1.90–2.09 (12,301 matches) | 52.7% | 52.5% | ±0.9 |
| Fav 2.10–2.49 (24,807 matches) | 58.6% | 58.1% | ±0.6 |
| Fav 2.50+ (8,596 matches) | 63.3% | 64.0% | ±1 |
To me this is the familiar favourite-longshot pattern in a different wrapper: the market marks up the outside chance most when it is smallest. Venue barely changes the picture. X2 with a home favourite landed 48.7% against 49.5% priced, and 1X with an away favourite landed 51.5% against 52.8%.
02Draws carry the double chance until the favourite weakens
Draws supplied 52.8% of all underdog double chance wins, which tells you what this bet really is. Against favourites under 1.30, the split was 12.0% draws to 5.3% underdog wins, so the draw did more than twice the work. Only once the favourite reaches 2.10–2.49 does the underdog draw level, at 29.3% wins against 28.8% draws. At 2.50 or longer it edges ahead, 32.7% to 31.3%.
View the data: where the double chance wins come from
| Draw | Underdog won | Favourite won (bet lost) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fav <1.30 | 12.0% | 5.3% | 82.7% |
| Fav 1.30–1.49 | 18.7% | 10.4% | 70.9% |
| Fav 1.50–1.69 | 22.8% | 16.4% | 60.8% |
| Fav 1.70–1.89 | 25.9% | 20.0% | 54.1% |
| Fav 1.90–2.09 | 27.9% | 24.5% | 47.6% |
| Fav 2.10–2.49 | 28.8% | 29.3% | 41.9% |
| Fav 2.50+ | 31.3% | 32.7% | 36.0% |
My takeaway is blunt. Against a short favourite, you are mostly betting on a draw with a small bonus attached. If my own draw estimate isn't above the market's, the double chance gives me nothing that the draw price alone doesn't.
03Fair double chance odds against the typical bookmaker price
Fair odds here are simply the inverse of how often the bet landed, set beside the average bookmaker equivalent built from the draw and underdog prices. Under 1.30, fair odds were 5.79 against a typical 4.75, a wide gulf. At 1.30–1.49 it was 3.44 against 2.94. By 2.50 or longer the gap shrinks to 1.56 against 1.49.
| Favourite price | Matches | How often | Fair odds | Avg bookmaker equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.30 | 3,682 | 17.3% | 5.79 | 4.75 |
| 1.30–1.49 | 5,943 | 29.1% | 3.44 | 2.94 |
| 1.50–1.69 | 8,926 | 39.2% | 2.55 | 2.31 |
| 1.70–1.89 | 10,805 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.99 |
| 1.90–2.09 | 12,301 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.79 |
| 2.10–2.49 | 24,807 | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.61 |
| 2.50+ | 8,596 | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.49 |
I use this table as a reference line rather than a target. If the price in front of me sits below the fair column, I am paying for the comfort of covering two outcomes. One caveat applies: dedicated double chance markets can be priced slightly differently from this 1X2-built equivalent, so check both before treating these figures as exact.
04Flat-stake returns improve steadily as the favourite lengthens
Backing the bet blindly at a major bookmaker returned −22.6% against favourites under 1.30 and −15.3% at 1.30–1.49. That loss eases to −4.4% once the favourite is 2.50 or longer. At the best available prices every band still lost money, though the 2.50+ band came within a whisker of breaking even.
The overall gap between −8.5% and −3.1% comes from price alone, with the same matches and the same outcomes. That is the clearest argument on the page for shopping around.
Double chance price built from the draw and underdog 1X2 odds (exact dutching).
View the data: backing draw-or-underdog every match
| At a major bookmaker | At best available prices | |
|---|---|---|
| Fav <1.30 | −22.6% | −12.4% |
| Fav 1.30–1.49 | −15.3% | −8.2% |
| Fav 1.50–1.69 | −9.6% | −3.6% |
| Fav 1.70–1.89 | −8.7% | −3.4% |
| Fav 1.90–2.09 | −6.2% | −1.1% |
| Fav 2.10–2.49 | −6.7% | −2.2% |
| Fav 2.50+ | −4.4% | −0.2% |
| All matches | −8.5% | −3.1% |
None of this is a system. No band turned a profit at either price, and swings of a few percent can appear by chance even at these sample sizes. Past results don't guarantee future ones, and I read this as a map of where the market is fair rather than a recipe for profit.
1X2 checklist
- Check the favourite's price. Under 1.50, the double chance has landed well short of its price, returning −22.6% and −15.3% at a major bookmaker. I want a specific reason before backing it there.
- Price the draw first. Draws supplied 52.8% of all wins, and against short favourites they did more than twice the underdog's share. If I don't rate the draw above the market's price, I pass.
- Compare against fair odds. Take the best price available and hold it against the fair odds column. For example, 1.56 is fair at a 2.50+ favourite against a typical 1.49. Price alone moved the overall return from −8.5% to −3.1%.
Quick answers
How often does a draw-or-underdog double chance win?
Across 75,060 European matches with a favourite, it landed 49.5% of the time against 50.5% priced. The rate depends heavily on the favourite's price, from 17.3% under 1.30 to 64.0% at 2.50 or longer.
Is double chance on the underdog good value?
Not in aggregate. Backing it every match returned −8.5% at a major bookmaker and −3.1% at the best prices. It came closest to fair against favourites at 2.50 or longer, at −4.4%.
What are fair double chance odds against a heavy favourite?
When the favourite was under 1.30, the observed fair odds were 5.79, while the average bookmaker equivalent was only 4.75. That gap is why this band returned −22.6%.
I'm Anneke Brandt, based in Aspen, and I write the win-draw-win tips at soccerbet.tips — treating the match-result market as price against probability, never as a reason to back the bigger badge.
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