"Any Other Score" in Correct Score Betting: How Often It Comes In

Every correct-score grid has a back door. Once either side reaches 4 goals, the bet settles as "any other score", the line most punters skip on the way to a tidy 2-1. I wanted to know how often that door actually opens, because a market is only a lottery if you refuse to count the tickets.

Over 75,060 matches, a side scored 4 or more 10.5% of the time, which makes the fair price 9.53. That is the frequency I keep beside every grid I price for my correct score predictions today page. It is a baseline rather than a rule, and as the charts show, it swings hard with the league and with the favourite's price.

01League identity sets the starting rate for big scorelines

The spread between competitions is wider than most bettors expect. The Eredivisie sits on top at 17.8% across 2,975 matches, with the Bundesliga close behind at 16.8%. At the other end, Segunda División managed just 5.6% and Serie B 6.6%, so a lopsided score turns up about three times as often in the Dutch top flight as in Spain's second tier.

I treat this chart as the first filter. A league where defences routinely collapse deserves a different baseline from one where 1-0 is the house style, and pricing them with the same 9.53 is lazy actuarial work.

Notice how the second tiers cluster near the bottom. The Championship, Ligue 2 and Serie B all sit well below the overall figure, and I read that as squads too evenly matched for blowouts to become routine.

02Short-priced favourites turn the bucket into a live outcome

This is the table that matters most. With a favourite under 1.30 across 3,682 matches, a side hit 4 or more in 28.2% of games, a fair price of 3.55. Move out to a favourite at 2.20 or longer and the rate falls to 7.1%, fair odds 14.06. The gradient is steep and almost perfectly ordered.

Look at who scores the goals. In that shortest band the favourite won scoring 4 or more in 27.8% of matches, leaving the underdog a mere 0.4%. Only in the tighter bands does the outsider's share creep up, to 2.8% at the 2.20+ end. Home sides account for 64.6% of all these matches, which fits the same story of strong teams at home running away with it.

My one serious caveat: correct-score markets carry a much heavier bookmaker margin than 1X2, and the grid itself differs by bookmaker, so a fair-odds figure here is the floor you should demand, not a price you will be offered. If the grid lists 4-0 and 4-1 separately, this bucket shrinks and these rates no longer apply.

03Most "any other" results are routine thrashings, not freak games

Of the 7,877 matches that fell outside a 0-0 to 3-3 grid, the single biggest share was 4-0 at 15.9%, followed by 4-1 at 14.3% and 1-4 at 9.5%. The wild 4-3 that people picture accounts for only 3.3%. This bucket is mostly one team pulling clear and the other failing to answer.

That shapes how I think about game state. Once a strong side leads by two, the opponent opens up chasing the deficit, and a third and fourth goal become much more likely than a comeback.

It also warns you to check the grid. A bookmaker that prices 4-0 and 4-1 individually has removed nearly a third of this bucket, and "any other" with them is a much thinner proposition.

04Season-to-season movement is small and mostly noise

The rate has been remarkably stable. Across the window it ranged from 9.8% to 11.6%, and the current campaign sits at 9.8%, the low end of the range. Nothing here suggests a structural shift towards or away from blowouts.

I take that as permission to trust the league and price splits over any single season's mood. A historical frequency is not a forecast, and any individual correct-score bet loses far more often than it wins, but a figure this steady is about as dependable as football data gets.

About the authorMargot Delacroix

I'm Margot Delacroix, based in Beverly Hills, and I write the correct score predictions at soccerbet.tips — built on goal distributions and game state, never on hoping a neat final number lands.

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