Away Favourite Win & BTTS: How Often It Lands at Each Price
Do travelling favourites win tidily or concede on the way? Ten seasons across 22 European divisions say the away side edges the home side at every price, but only slightly.
Suchada PhongBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief5 min read
- 22.4%home favourite win & BTTS
- 45.8%of away favourite wins included a conceded goal
- 4.49fair odds, away favourite win & BTTS
Away favourites have a reputation for winning ugly: keep it tight, take the points, get on the coach. I wanted to test that against a combination bet, where the favourite wins and both teams score, and see whether travelling sides behave differently from home favourites priced the same. The sample covers 75,485 matches across 22 European divisions from 2016/17 to 2025/26.
The headline answer is that overall they are almost identical. Away favourites won with both teams scoring in 22.3% of 22,665 matches, home favourites in 22.4% of 52,395. Split by price, though, the away side comes out ahead in 5 of 5 bands, and that small, consistent lean is the kind of edge I look for when I build my win and GG tips page.
01At every price, away favourites win with BTTS slightly more
This chart lines up home and away favourites at the same pre-match price. Under 1.50 the away side lands win and BTTS in 32.7% against 32.2% at home. In the 2.00โ2.49 band it is 20.3% against 19.0%, and at 2.50 or longer it is 17.0% against 15.4%.
None of these gaps is large, and at the short end they sit well inside the uncertainty because short-priced away favourites are scarce. The gap is clearest in the busiest bands, where the samples are deep enough to trust the direction.
View the data: home favourite vs away favourite
| Home favourite | Away favourite | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| <1.50 (7,422 home / 2,203 away) | 32.2% | 32.7% | ยฑ2 |
| 1.50โ1.69 (6,813 home / 2,113 away) | 26.6% | 27.4% | ยฑ1.9 |
| 1.70โ1.99 (12,368 home / 4,234 away) | 22.7% | 23.7% | ยฑ1.3 |
| 2.00โ2.49 (20,975 home / 10,336 away) | 19.0% | 20.3% | ยฑ0.8 |
| 2.50+ (4,817 home / 3,779 away) | 15.4% | 17.0% | ยฑ1.2 |
So why does the overall rate come out level? Away favourites cluster at the longer prices, where this combination lands less often, and that drags their headline figure down. Away favourites were only 30.2% of matches with a favourite, but when they did win, 45.8% of those wins included a conceded goal, against 43.6% for home favourites. They are a little leakier, not dramatically so.
02Short away favourites still win to nil more than they concede
Here every away favourite match is split four ways: won with BTTS, won to nil, drawn or lost. Under 1.50 the favourite won to nil in 40.9% and won with BTTS in 32.7%, so even the strongest travelling sides keep a clean sheet more often than not when they win.
That ordering holds all the way down. At 1.70โ1.99 it is 28.6% to nil against 23.7% with BTTS. By 2.50 or longer the win and BTTS share falls to 17.0%, while draws take 29.9% and defeats 32.5%.
View the data: what happens to away favourites
| Won & BTTS | Won to nil | Draw | Lost | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.50 | 32.7% | 41.0% | 16.4% | 9.9% |
| 1.50โ1.69 | 27.4% | 34.3% | 22.9% | 15.4% |
| 1.70โ1.99 | 23.7% | 28.6% | 25.1% | 22.6% |
| 2.00โ2.49 | 20.3% | 22.6% | 27.4% | 29.7% |
| 2.50+ | 17.0% | 20.6% | 29.9% | 32.5% |
For a combination bettor, the lesson is that the BTTS leg does more damage at short prices than at long ones. At the long end the win itself is the hard part; at the short end you are fighting the clean sheet.
03Break-even prices for away favourite win and BTTS by band
The table turns each frequency into fair odds, the decimal price at which the bet breaks even with no bookmaker margin. Across all away favourites the fair figure is 4.49. By band it runs from 3.06 under 1.50, through 4.23 at 1.70โ1.99, to 4.92 at 2.00โ2.49 and 5.87 at 2.50 or longer.
Look at the sample column too. The 2.00โ2.49 band holds 10,336 matches, while under 1.50 has 2,203, so the short-price figures carry more noise.
| Price | Matches | Avg price | Won & BTTS | Fair | Won to nil | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.50 | 2,203 | 1.34 | 32.7% | 3.06 | 40.9% | 2.45 |
| 1.50โ1.69 | 2,113 | 1.60 | 27.4% | 3.66 | 34.4% | 2.91 |
| 1.70โ1.99 | 4,234 | 1.85 | 23.7% | 4.23 | 28.6% | 3.49 |
| 2.00โ2.49 | 10,336 | 2.25 | 20.3% | 4.92 | 22.6% | 4.42 |
| 2.50+ | 3,779 | 2.58 | 17.0% | 5.87 | 20.6% | 4.86 |
The main caveat: these records hold no BTTS prices, so I cannot tell you whether the market has historically paid more or less than these fair numbers. Treat them as a benchmark to compare against, not as proof of profit.
BTTS & Win checklist
- Identify the price band. The win and BTTS rate for away favourites falls from 32.7% under 1.50 to 17.0% at 2.50 or longer, so the band sets your baseline before anything else.
- Demand more than fair. Only consider the bet when the offered price is clearly above the band's fair figure, such as 4.92 at 2.00โ2.49; anything at or below it gives the edge back to the margin.
- Compare the to-nil alternative. Short away favourites won to nil in 40.9% under 1.50, more often than with BTTS, so ask whether this particular side really profiles as leaky before backing the combination.
Quick answers
How often does an away favourite win with both teams scoring?
Across 22,665 matches with an away favourite, it happened in 22.3% of them. That works out at fair odds of 4.49 before any bookmaker margin.
Do away favourites concede more than home favourites when they win?
Slightly. 45.8% of away favourite wins included a conceded goal, against 43.6% for home favourites, and away favourites landed win and BTTS more often in 5 of 5 price bands.
What are fair odds for a heavy away favourite to win and BTTS?
For away favourites priced under 1.50, the combination landed in 32.7% of 2,203 matches, giving fair odds of 3.06. They won to nil more often, in 40.9%.
I'm Suchada Phong, based in Bangkok, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at soccerbet.tips โ where a result and an open game have to land together for the bet to pay.
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