Win to Nil or BTTS & Win? Where Favourites Keep Clean Sheets
Favourites usually keep a clean sheet when they win, but not everywhere. Here is where their wins stay tidy and where the combination market finds its natural home.
Suchada PhongBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- 59.2%to-nil share in Ligue 2, the highest
- 49.4%to-nil share in the Bundesliga, the lowest
- 4.46fair odds, favourite win & BTTS, 16 leagues
When a favourite wins, does it usually shut the door or win a shoot-out? That question decides whether BTTS & Win is a sensible combination or a trap that looks like value. I studied 62,422 matches with a favourite across 16 European leagues from 2016/17–2025/26 to find out where each outcome lives.
The headline answer is clear: across 31,297 favourite wins, 55.3% were to nil and 44.7% came with both teams scoring. Clean-sheet wins are the default, so BTTS & Win only earns its place in particular leagues. Those are the leagues I hunt in when building my best win & BTTS bets page, and the charts below show why.
01How favourite wins split between clean sheets and conceding
This chart takes every favourite win in each league and splits it into wins to nil and wins where the favourite conceded. Ligue 2 sits at the top, with 59.2% of favourite wins to nil, with the Segunda División and the Scottish Premiership just behind. At the bottom is the Bundesliga at 49.4%, which means 50.6% of its favourite wins included a conceded goal.
The spread between those extremes is 9.8 points, and that is the profile I care about. In 14 of the 16 leagues, favourites won to nil more often than with BTTS. Only the Süper Lig and the Bundesliga tip the other way, and the 2. Bundesliga sits close to an even split.
View the data: win to nil or win with btts?
| Won to nil | Won & BTTS | |
|---|---|---|
| Ligue 2 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| Segunda División | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| Scottish Premiership | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| Serie B | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Championship | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| League One | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| La Liga | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| League Two | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| Ligue 1 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Premier League | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Serie A | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Eredivisie | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| National League | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Süper Lig | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Bundesliga | 49.4% | 50.6% |
The English pyramid leans towards clean sheets. The Premier League splits 54.9% to nil and 45.1% with BTTS, and the Championship is tighter still at 57.3% to 42.7%. For a combination specialist, that tells me the brittle-but-winning favourite is the exception in England, not the rule.
02Fair odds for favourite to nil against BTTS & Win
The split only tells half the story, because a league where favourites win often can still produce plenty of BTTS & Win results. This table converts unconditional rates across all matches with a favourite into fair odds, the break-even price with no bookmaker margin. Across all 16 leagues, the favourite win & BTTS fair price is 4.46.
The extremes are stark. In Ligue 2, favourite win & BTTS landed in only 18.8% of matches, a fair price of 5.31, while win to nil came in at 27.3% with fair odds of 3.66. In the Bundesliga, favourite win & BTTS landed in 26.6% of matches, a fair price of 3.76, which is the joint shortest in the table alongside the Süper Lig.
| League | Fav wins | To-nil share | Win to nil | Fair | Win & BTTS | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 2 | 1,629 | 59.2% | 27.3% | 3.66 | 18.8% | 5.31 |
| Segunda División | 2,143 | 59.1% | 27.7% | 3.61 | 19.1% | 5.23 |
| Scottish Premiership | 1,207 | 59.1% | 32.5% | 3.08 | 22.5% | 4.44 |
| Serie B | 1,742 | 57.4% | 25.7% | 3.89 | 19.1% | 5.24 |
| Championship | 2,606 | 57.3% | 27.2% | 3.67 | 20.3% | 4.93 |
| League One | 2,620 | 56.5% | 27.8% | 3.60 | 21.4% | 4.67 |
| La Liga | 2,043 | 55.7% | 30.1% | 3.33 | 23.9% | 4.18 |
| League Two | 2,472 | 55.6% | 25.6% | 3.90 | 20.5% | 4.89 |
| Ligue 1 | 1,817 | 55.4% | 29.1% | 3.43 | 23.4% | 4.27 |
| Premier League | 2,104 | 54.9% | 30.5% | 3.28 | 25.1% | 3.99 |
| Serie A | 2,107 | 54.0% | 30.0% | 3.33 | 25.6% | 3.90 |
| Eredivisie | 1,677 | 53.7% | 30.3% | 3.30 | 26.1% | 3.83 |
| National League | 2,361 | 53.6% | 26.0% | 3.85 | 22.5% | 4.45 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 1,413 | 51.9% | 24.1% | 4.15 | 22.3% | 4.49 |
| Süper Lig | 1,756 | 49.8% | 26.4% | 3.79 | 26.6% | 3.76 |
| Bundesliga | 1,600 | 49.4% | 26.0% | 3.84 | 26.6% | 3.76 |
Look at the Scottish Premiership too. Its to-nil share is among the highest, yet BTTS & Win still landed in 22.5% of matches at a fair 4.44, because favourites there simply win so often. The main caveat matters here: these records hold no BTTS prices, so I can show you frequencies and fair odds, not betting returns. Whether any league offers value depends on the price you are actually given.
03The clean-sheet share has drifted lower in recent seasons
Pooling all 16 leagues by season, the to-nil share of favourite wins has stayed in a narrow band, from 53.6% in 2023/24 up to 56.4% in 2018/19. That stability is reassuring: the broad pattern is not a fluke of one strange campaign.
Look closely, though, and the most recent seasons sit at the lower end of that band, with 2024/25 at 54.5%. It is a modest drift towards favourites conceding on the way to victory, not a structural break, and league-level shares move a few points from season to season anyway.
View the data: clean-sheet wins by season
| Wins to nil, share of favourite wins | |
|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 55.2% |
| 2017/18 | 56.0% |
| 2018/19 | 56.4% |
| 2019/20 | 55.1% |
| 2020/21 | 56.3% |
| 2021/22 | 55.6% |
| 2022/23 | 55.8% |
| 2023/24 | 53.6% |
| 2024/25 | 54.5% |
| 2025/26 | 53.9% |
I read this as a reason to keep my league priorities but not to treat any single season's split as fixed. A slight tilt towards open wins helps the combination, yet it does not turn a clean-sheet league into a BTTS & Win league overnight.
BTTS & Win checklist
- Start with the league. Favourite wins went to nil 59.2% of the time in Ligue 2 but only 49.4% in the Bundesliga. Check where the league sits on that split before anything else.
- Compare against fair odds. The 16-league fair price for favourite win & BTTS is 4.46, ranging from 3.76 in the Bundesliga to 5.31 in Ligue 2. If the price offered is shorter than the relevant fair figure, walk away.
- Weigh win rate too. A clean-sheet league can still produce the combination if favourites win often, as the Scottish Premiership shows at 22.5%. Judge the unconditional rate, not just the split.
Quick answers
How often do favourites win to nil?
Across 31,297 favourite wins in 16 European leagues, 55.3% were to nil. The other 44.7% came with both teams scoring.
Which league is best for BTTS & Win on the favourite?
In this sample, the Bundesliga and the Süper Lig both saw favourite win & BTTS in 26.6% of matches, a fair price of 3.76. That is a historical frequency, not a guarantee of future results.
What are fair odds for a favourite to win and both teams to score?
Across all 16 leagues the fair price is 4.46, the break-even decimal price with no bookmaker margin. It varies widely by league, up to 5.31 in Ligue 2.
I'm Suchada Phong, based in Bangkok, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at soccerbet.tips — where a result and an open game have to land together for the bet to pay.
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