Most Common Scores in the Championship, League One and League Two
Below the Premier League, the low draw rules. I map the top scorelines across the EFL and National League, convert them to fair prices, and test how stable they are.
Margot DelacroixCorrect Score Predictions specialistReviewed by Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- 12.7%of Championship matches ended 1-1
- 7.88fair odds of 1-1 in the Championship
- 11.0%of League Two matches ended 1-0
Correct score punters often borrow their instincts from the Premier League and carry them down the pyramid unchanged. I wanted to know whether that holds. This study covers 16,287 Championship, League One and League Two matches, set against 4,926 National League matches and 3,800 Premier League matches, and asks which exact scorelines actually turn up most often.
The headline answer is plain: 1-1 is the most common result in every division studied, and it is more common in the EFL than in the top flight. It ended 12.7% of Championship matches against 10.9% in the Premier League. These base rates are the backdrop I check before building today's correct score picks, and they are the first thing I would want any bettor to have in their head.
01The tight, low scorelines that dominate English lower leagues
The heatmap ranks the ten most common scores in each league, with the Premier League as the reference column. The top three never change order in the EFL: 1-1, then 1-0, then 2-1. League Two is the purest version of it, with 1-1 at 12.8% and 1-0 at 11.0%, while League One runs 12.1% and 10.6%.
The goalless draw is the quiet tell. 0-0 landed 7.5% in the Championship and League One and 8.0% in League Two, compared with 6.1% in the Premier League. At the other end, a side scored 4 or more in 8.0% of Championship matches against 13.3% in the Premier League, which explains why 3-1 sits so much lower in the EFL columns.
View the data: top 10 scores down the english pyramid
| Championship | League One | League Two | National League | Premier League | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 10.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% |
| 0-1 | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% |
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| 0-2 | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% |
| 2-2 | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% |
| 3-1 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% |
What I take from this is that the EFL squeezes probability into a narrow band of low scores. Gaps in quality are smaller, leads get protected rather than extended, and the scoreline at 1-0 tends to freeze rather than open up. The National League sits in between, with 1-1 at 11.5% and slightly more spread across 2-2 and 0-2.
02Turning EFL scoreline frequencies into break-even decimal prices
Frequencies only matter to a bettor once they become prices. This table converts each observed rate into fair decimal odds, meaning the price at which you would break even with no margin at all. The Championship 1-1 comes out at 7.88, League Two at 7.83 and League One at 8.25. For comparison, the Premier League 1-1 works out at 9.18.
Further down, the numbers stretch quickly. A Championship 0-0 sits at 13.39, a 2-2 at 19.64 and a 3-1 at 26.53. League Two's 0-0 is the shortest of the divisions at 12.45, which fits its reputation for cagey football.
| Score | Championship | League One | League Two | National League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 7.88 | 8.25 | 7.83 | 8.69 |
| 1-0 | 9.14 | 9.45 | 9.11 | 10.57 |
| 2-1 | 10.45 | 10.36 | 11.33 | 11.87 |
| 0-1 | 11.38 | 12.03 | 11.55 | 12.04 |
| 0-0 | 13.39 | 13.25 | 12.45 | 14.28 |
| 2-0 | 13.33 | 13.58 | 14.07 | 14.24 |
| 1-2 | 13.30 | 13.79 | 13.96 | 13.42 |
| 0-2 | 19.64 | 19.87 | 19.58 | 17.66 |
| 2-2 | 19.64 | 20.71 | 20.01 | 18.24 |
| 3-1 | 26.53 | 26.83 | 23.81 | 26.63 |
The caveat I keep returning to is this: correct score carries a much heavier bookmaker margin than the match result market, so these figures are a floor, not a quote. If the price on offer is below the fair figure, the history says you are paying for the privilege, and even at a fair price any single scoreline bet loses far more often than it wins.
03How stable the EFL 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0 rates are
A base rate is only useful if it holds still. The line chart tracks 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0 season by season across the three EFL divisions combined. The 1-1 line is remarkably steady, moving between 11.6% and 13.2%, and it stays clearly above 1-0 in every season shown.
The 0-0 line is the restless one, swinging between 6.0% and 8.9%. That is a wide range for a scoreline priced in the low teens, and it tells me goalless draws are far more sensitive to the season's mood than the score draw is.
View the data: three key scores in the efl, season by season
| 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 12.8% | 9.9% | 7.2% |
| 2017/18 | 12.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% |
| 2018/19 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 7.7% |
| 2019/20 | 13.1% | 11.5% | 7.5% |
| 2020/21 | 12.0% | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| 2021/22 | 12.1% | 10.6% | 8.0% |
| 2022/23 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 8.6% |
| 2023/24 | 11.6% | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| 2024/25 | 12.6% | 11.2% | 8.4% |
| 2025/26 | 13.0% | 11.8% | 6.2% |
My reading is that 1-1 is the most dependable anchor in EFL correct score, while 0-0 needs more context before I trust it. Historical frequencies describe what happened rather than forecast what comes next, so I use these lines as a starting point and adjust for the specific matchup.
Correct Score checklist
- Start from the division. Do not import Premier League habits: 1-1 ends 12.7% of Championship matches against 10.9% in the top flight. Use the right league's base rate before you look at team form.
- Compare against fair odds. Treat the fair figures as a minimum, such as 7.88 for a Championship 1-1 or 9.14 for a Championship 1-0. Anything shorter means the margin has eaten whatever value existed.
- Discount high-scoring hunches. A side reached 4 or more goals in only 8.0% of Championship matches, compared with 13.3% in the Premier League. Big scorelines need a strong, specific reason in the EFL.
Quick answers
What is the most common score in the Championship?
1-1 is the most common Championship score, ending 12.7% of matches in the study. It is followed by 1-0 at 10.9% and 2-1 at 9.6%.
What are fair odds for a 1-1 draw in League Two?
Based on observed frequency, the fair price for a League Two 1-1 is 7.83 in decimal odds. That is a break-even figure with no margin, so a real price needs to be higher to offer value.
Are 0-0 draws more common in the EFL than the Premier League?
Yes. 0-0 landed 8.0% in League Two and 7.5% in both the Championship and League One, against 6.1% in the Premier League. The EFL rate also varies a lot by season, from 6.0% to 8.9%.
I'm Margot Delacroix, based in Beverly Hills, and I write the correct score predictions at soccerbet.tips โ built on goal distributions and game state, never on hoping a neat final number lands.
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