Underdog Win & BTTS: How Often Long Shots Win With Both Scoring
Across 22 European divisions, the underdog wins with both sides scoring roughly half as often as it simply wins. That ratio holds at almost every price, and it sets the fair odds.
Suchada PhongBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Yelena Voronkova, Editor-in-Chief5 min read
- 8.91fair odds, underdog win & BTTS
- 48.0%of underdog wins had the favourite scoring
- 2.6%underdog win & BTTS at 12.00+
Underdog win and BTTS sounds like a long-shot fantasy, but it is simply the most common way an upset arrives when the favourite still gets on the scoresheet. I wanted to know how often it happens at each price, and whether the favourite's goal is the exception or the rule. This study feeds into how I frame my BTTS and win predictions page.
Across 75,060 matches, the underdog won with both teams scoring in 11.2% of games, which is a fair price of 8.91. Underdogs won 23.4% of matches overall, and 48.0% of those wins came with the favourite scoring. So almost half of all upsets are open games rather than smash-and-grab clean sheets.
01How the underdog combo shrinks as the price lengthens
This chart sets two rates side by side for each underdog price band: how often the underdog won, and how often it won with both teams scoring. Short-priced underdogs under 3.00 won & BTTS in 15.7% of 14,505 matches. At 4.00โ5.49 that falls to 9.6%, and at 12.00 or longer it is just 2.6% of 2,367 matches.
What stands out to me is how tightly the two markers travel together. At 8.00โ11.99 the underdog won 8.2% of matches and won & BTTS in 4.6%, so the combo is roughly half the straight win at the long end as well as the short end.
View the data: underdog wins vs underdog win & btts
| Underdog won | Won & BTTS | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| <3.00 (14,505 matches) | 32.9% | 15.7% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 3.00โ3.99 (29,372 matches) | 27.0% | 12.7% | ยฑ0.4 |
| 4.00โ5.49 (16,700 matches) | 19.6% | 9.6% | ยฑ0.4 |
| 5.50โ7.99 (8,385 matches) | 13.6% | 6.8% | ยฑ0.5 |
| 8.00โ11.99 (3,731 matches) | 8.2% | 4.6% | ยฑ0.7 |
| 12.00+ (2,367 matches) | 4.7% | 2.6% | ยฑ0.6 |
Venue matters too. Home underdogs won & BTTS in 12.5% of 22,665 matches, against 10.7% of 52,395 for away underdogs. That is a modest edge, but in a combination market a modest edge in frequency is worth pricing.
02Long-shot upsets more often concede to the favourite
Here I strip out the losses and look only at underdog wins, asking what share included a goal for the favourite. For underdogs under 3.00 the figure is 47.8%. For underdogs at 12.00 or longer it rises to 54.5%.
That fits how I read these matches. A heavy outsider rarely wins by shutting a strong side out for ninety minutes; it more often survives a goal and still finds more of its own. The closer contests are cagier, so a short underdog is slightly more likely to win to nil.
View the data: underdog wins that came with btts
| Share of underdog wins where the favourite also scored | |
|---|---|
| <3.00 | 47.8% |
| 3.00โ3.99 | 46.9% |
| 4.00โ5.49 | 49.2% |
| 5.50โ7.99 | 50.4% |
| 8.00โ11.99 | 55.4% |
| 12.00+ | 54.5% |
I treat the long-shot end with caution, because those bands hold far fewer matches and their rates swing more with chance. The direction is clear enough, but I would not build on the exact gap.
03Fair combo odds sit a little over double the 1X2 price
The table converts each frequency into a break-even price with no bookmaker margin. Under 3.00, the fair combo price is 6.36 against an average 1X2 price of 2.80, a ratio of 2.27x. At 5.50โ7.99 it is 14.61 against 6.40, or 2.28x. At 12.00+, the fair price climbs to 38.80.
That near-constant multiple is the most useful thing in this study. Whatever the underdog's win price, the fair BTTS & Win price lands at a little over double it. That gives me a quick sanity check before I look at any quoted combo.
| Underdog price | Matches | Avg price | Won & BTTS | Fair odds | Fair / 1X2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <3.00 | 14,505 | 2.80 | 15.7% | 6.36 | 2.27x |
| 3.00โ3.99 | 29,372 | 3.40 | 12.7% | 7.88 | 2.32x |
| 4.00โ5.49 | 16,700 | 4.58 | 9.6% | 10.39 | 2.27x |
| 5.50โ7.99 | 8,385 | 6.40 | 6.8% | 14.61 | 2.28x |
| 8.00โ11.99 | 3,731 | 9.41 | 4.6% | 21.95 | 2.33x |
| 12.00+ | 2,367 | 16.62 | 2.6% | 38.80 | 2.34x |
The main caveat is that these records hold no BTTS prices, so this is a study of how often things happened and what they would be worth at break-even, not of what betting them actually returned. A major bookmaker builds margin into combinations, and these are historical frequencies, not a forecast.
BTTS & Win checklist
- Double the win price. Fair BTTS & Win odds ran between 2.27x and 2.34x the underdog's average 1X2 price in every band. If a quoted combo is not comfortably above that multiple after margin, I pass.
- Favour open long shots. 54.5% of wins by 12.00+ underdogs came with the favourite scoring, against 47.8% for underdogs under 3.00. With a big outsider, the combo gives up less of the straight win's chances than it does with a short-priced underdog.
- Check the venue. Home underdogs won & BTTS in 12.5% of matches, away underdogs in 10.7%. I give the home side a small extra allowance before I judge the price.
Quick answers
How often does the underdog win with both teams scoring?
Across 75,060 European matches, the underdog won with both teams scoring in 11.2% of games. That gives fair odds of 8.91 before any bookmaker margin.
Do most underdog wins include a goal for the favourite?
Almost half do. 48.0% of underdog wins included a goal for the favourite, rising to 54.5% for underdogs priced at 12.00 or longer.
What are fair odds for a big outsider to win and both teams to score?
For underdogs at 12.00 or longer, the combo landed in 2.6% of 2,367 matches, a fair price of 38.80. That small band moves a lot with chance, so treat it as a rough guide.
I'm Suchada Phong, based in Bangkok, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at soccerbet.tips โ where a result and an open game have to land together for the bet to pay.
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